May 21, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are down 8-9c,
🍞wheat is down 14-15,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.68-$0.69,
💲US Dollar is up 3 points
-Conflicting news out of China over the $17 billion purchase of U.S. ag products. China says it is a “guiding target” to expand trade.
-U.S. weather looks to be near ideal in the 7-10 and 11-15 day forecast to get the crop off and running.
-News has been quiet on the entire U.S./Iran conflict this week.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 950,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybeans 150,000-650,000 metric tons, wheat 100,000-550,000 metric tons, and soybean meal 200,000-550,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.58 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.80 1/4 which is the low from May 15th. Resistance comes in at $5.06 1/2 which is the high from May 13th.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.91 which the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.35 which is the high from May 13th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.84 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is our high from May 13th.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.80 3/4 which is the low from May 15th. Resistance comes in at $7.50 which is the high from the week of May 13th.
Where do we go from Here:
The grain market is simply lacking bullish news. The market has already priced in several bullish factors and to keep a bull market pushing higher, we need to feed that bull more news. As the news dries up, we see setbacks and that is exactly what is happening here. Now, China came out yesterday and said their talks the U.S. included a “guiding target” looking to expand trade with the U.S. and that included up to $17 billion of U.S. ag products. This headline contradicts the U.S. headline a bit, so the market is a bit uneasy, so we are seeing some money come off the table. I still feel the corn market is range bound with good support just under the market. The weather looks good, so it is not to surprising we are seeing some risk getting taken out of the market.
The soybean market was very quiet yesterday. The headline out of China simply put into context that until we have a signed agreement, we will continue to have risk in the market. Now, the demand for U.S. soybeans is still very strong. We have an entire growing season ahead of us. and the current USDA ending stocks projection is at 310 million bushels. If the U.S. gets some adverse weather during the month of August to drop the national yield, that carryout could get pretty tight, so I have my doubts this market is going to completely roll over and head a lot lower. For the time, we are seeing some risk getting taken out of the market and we are heading back down to the lower end of the trading range.
July Kansas City wheat broke the $7.00 mark yesterday and closed below $7.00. The lack of news has wheat prices retreating and looking to test support at last Friday’s low of $6.80 3/4. Without any fresh bullish news, the wheat market looks to drift lower.
