March 3, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are up 18-19c,
🍞wheat is up 7-8c,
🛢️crude oil is up $5.71-$5.72,
💲US Dollar is up 96 points
-Crude oil surging again as strikes on U.S. oil storage in Middles East take place in the overnight.
-Talks of the Strait of Hormuz is now closed, adding more premium to energy prices.
-Corn and soybean export inspections were above avg trade estimates yesterday while wheat was at the low end.
-U.S. Dollar back up trading over 99.
-The soybean rally is led by soybean oil as soybean oil is up another 90-95c here this morning following crude oil.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.42 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.56 3/4 which is the high from January 12th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.60 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.73 1/2 which is the high from November 13th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.60 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.85 which is the high from March 2nd.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.24 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.36 which is the high from March 2nd.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.58 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.95 1/4 which is the high from March 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are back testing the highs from yesterday. Strikes against U.S. oil storage in the Middle East overnight is pushing crude oil prices up 6-7% and supporting our grain prices as well. The big area on May corn futures I am watching is $4.56 3/4. This is the high from the January 12th crop report in which we saw a negative report and were down 23+ cents. If we can take out and close above that level, that would be significant. The Funds are basically back to a neutral position and might even be long a few contracts now. The U.S. Dollar is back above 99 but the U.S. corn still remains the cheapest in the World. It does feel that if crude oil pulls back eventually, corn prices will follow suit.
Soybean prices are back trading above the highs we had last November when the government was shut down, and the Funds pushed their length to well over 200,000+ contracts long. Could we be seeing the same thing happen again? This rally is led by soybean oil which typically does not lead the rallies. Yesterday as crude oil prices pulled back off their highs, so did the soybean prices. Soybean oil did end the day up 88-90c and are up another 90 cents here this morning. My guess is Funds are over 200,000 contracts long now so one has to wonder just how big of a long position will they hold. Not much news is coming out of South America as harvest progresses along nicely in Brazil while crop conditions in Argentina continue to improve. Much like corn, it feels like when crude oil stops going higher, soybean prices could see a correction.
May Kansas City wheat futures pulled back yesterday as some good rains are projected for much of the U.S. in the 7-10-day forecast. Funds were mostly absent from buying and May Kansas City wheat tested support at the 10-day moving average. In the overnight session, we are bouncing off support and back testing yesterday’s highs. U.S. wheat prices are not competitive in the World market but right now it feels like the money flow is chasing commodities, especially energies and grains.
