October 15, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 10-12c,
💲US Dollar is down 20-21 points.
-CONAB put out their 2025/26 estimate on corn and soybeans at 138.603 MMT corn and 177.6 MMT soybeans. This compares to 139.67 MMT corn last year and 171.5 MMT soybeans last year.
-September NOPA crush will be out today. Estimate is at 186.3 million bushels. This would be down 1.8% from last month but a 5.1% increase from last September.
-Export inspections out yesterday were a bit disappointing form corn, coming in at low end of expectations but soybeans were at the upper end of expectations.
-Corn exports are running 65% ahead of last year’s pace while soybeans are running 26% below last year’s pace.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy/mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.10 1/2 which is the low from October 1st. Resistance is at $4.21 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.41 1/2 which is the low from October 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.55 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.02 1/2 which is the October 10th low. Resistance is at $10.29 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.59 which is the October 10th low. Resistance is at $10.83 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.77 1/4 which is the low from October 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.98 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures put in a new low yesterday and the lowest trade we have seen since August 28th but managed to close out the day higher. Support around the $4.10 area is holding up rather well. Harvest continues to roll along with mixed yields, but we are starting to hear of some better yields in the Dakotas, MN and the eastern corn belt. Traders are still expecting the national corn yield to get lowered but to see the national corn yield to dip below 183 bushels per acres seems like a stretch today. Look for corn futures to continue to consolidate between $4.10 and $4.20 December futures.
CONAB put out their 2025/26 soybean crop estimate at 177.6 MMT vs 171.5 MMT last year. CONAB is noting a 3.6% increase in crop area planted. So far Brazil’s planting pace is ahead of the 5-year average and off to a good start. President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to meet now in South Korea later this month so could we get a spark in the soybean market leading up to that meeting or is that why soybeans continue to hold above $10.00? I feel we have thrown a lot of negative news at the soybean market and we continue to hold above $10.00 so the $10.00 level becomes very significant going forward.
December Kansas City wheat futures hit the bottom end of their trading channel and bounced back up and closed out the day 7 cents higher. With corn and soybeans a little softer to start out the day today, not surprising to see wheat futures down a little as well. The trend is still down for wheat and with corn and soybean futures looking to consolidate, I look for wheat futures to continue to grind lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
We are not expecting any USDA reports until the Government is back open.
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