July 8, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 4-6,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.68-$0.69,
💲US Dollar is up 14 points
-China was back in buying another 5-6 cargoes of new crop soybeans from the U.S.
-The U.S. carried out attacks on Iran last night, signaling the ceasefire is done. This was after Iran struck another couple ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
-Crude oil is up over 5% as tensions rise in the Middle East.
-The U.S. weather looks to keep the heat in the western corn belt in the 11–15-day forecasts but temps are not going to be too extreme.
-Export flash sale of 105,000 metric ton of soybean meal sold to Colombia announced yesterday.
-November soybean futures are trading back above the $12.00 level.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy trade for Wednesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.24 1/2 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.50 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.44 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.70 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.68 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.38 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.68 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market was very choppy yesterday and could have easily closed out the day lower. However, China stepped in and bought some more new crop soybeans and that got the Funds buying and adding to what I say is a net long position in corn. Some of the extended weather models are keeping the heat in the 11-15-day forecasts but it looks like the heat will stick to the Dakotas, MN and Nebraska. Iowa is supposed to be in the low 90’s, but it is also the middle of July, we should be in the low 90’s. The corn crop is still rated in the 67% “good/excellent” category which is right in line with the 5-year average and down 7% from last year. We keep hearing rumors that China is looking for offers on corn bushels but so far that is all what they are, rumors. As December corn pushes back into the $4.70 area, I look for some resistance and some selling to pick up. We don’t have a record crop growing in the U.S., but it could be the 2nd largest crop of corn we have grown.
The Funds are busy adding to their long position in the soybean complex. China was back in buying another 5-6 cargoes of new crop soybeans. Combination of the warm/dry weather in the U.S. and China living up to their word of buying 25 MMT of new crop soybeans has the market adding some risk premium back into the marketplace. Ultimately it is the August weather that determines the overall size of the U.S. soybean crop, but we don’t need to see the trend start heading towards a warmer and drier path. November soybeans are back trading above $12.00 this morning and looking to test contract high of $12.14. I look for soybeans to remain well supported but we will need to continue to see China buy new crop soybeans to push us up to new highs.
Wheat prices seem to be breaking out here to the upside. Tensions across the Middle East last night seem to be helping lend some support. Also, the weather remains very hot and dry in France and Spain. For context, the hot temps in the U.S. this weekend are calling for temps to be 5-7 degrees above average. Over in Europe, their temps are running 11-13 degrees above normal and have been for a while. Damage is being done to their corn and wheat crop and that is helping support U.S. prices.
