July 2, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.03-$1.04,
💲US Dollar is down 35 points
-Reminder, markets will be open as normal today but then closed Friday and will resume trade Sunday night at 7 pm CST.
-USDA’s May soybean crush data came in less than trade estimates at 213.1 million bushels.
-May corn for ethanol come in a 471.8 million bushels. This is up from last year and up from April but to reach USDA’s annual estimate we will need to run 6.6% ahead of last year these last few months.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 900,000-2,200,000 metric tons, soybeans 650,000-1,500,000 metric tons, wheat 300,000-600,000 metric tons and soybean meal 100,000-500,000 metric tons.
-The U.S. weather looks to bring widespread 1-2″ of rain across most of the U.S. next week along with cooler temps. Almost ideal for crop growth.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/higher trade here for Wednesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.06 1/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $4.23 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.25 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $4.42 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.06 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance is at $11.34 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.18 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.53 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.10 3/4 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $6.35 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market is looking for its 3rd higher day in a row. Heading into a 3-day weekend we have some heat spreading across the corn belt, but forecasts are bringing in cooler temps and chances of rain next week. To me, this weather forecast looks ideal for crop growth. It feels like the market got way oversold in the short term, the USDA did not give us a bearish crop report on Tuesday, so we have a few “weak” shorts getting out ahead of the long weekend on a short-covering rally. Looking at the USDA planted acres number and looking at the current corn crop in the U.S. one has to wonder just how bullish the USDA report was on Tuesday. Current crop conditions suggest we are on a path to grow our second largest corn crop ever in the U.S. so, I feel the market got a little oversold, is stabilizing here for the near term and if the weather continues to look near ideal, we could slip back into a downtrend after the long weekend.
On the soybeans, USDA crush number out yesterday was a bit disappointing coming in below trade estimates. The overall crush for the year is still very strong but seems to be slowing down a bit. However, soybean prices continue to hold strong. When looking at the 665,000 acres increase from the March intentions and looking at the U.S. balance sheet, the U.S. still needs to have great weather in August. With China stepping back in and buying new crop soybeans from the U.S. and out exports increasing, even a sub 52 bushel per acre national yield makes U.S. soybean balance sheet pretty tight. So, I look for the Funds to continue to hold a long position for the next couple weeks until we can get a better feel for August weather.
September Kansas City wheat futures had a nice follow up yesterday after a hook reversal on Tuesday. Heading into a 3-day weekend, the wheat market is pretty quiet. It feels like the wheat complex scored a pretty important low on Tuesday this week. Now, moving forward, rallies will be limited and we will need to give the wheat market more friendly news, but we should find good support near this week’s lows.
