February 11, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is unchanged,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 5-6c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.89-$0.90,
💲US Dollar is down 27 points
-USDA increased the U.S. exports by another 100 million bushels thus lowering carryout stocks to 2.127 billion bushels.
-USDA did increase the Brazilian soybean crop by 2 mmt and is projected at 180 mmt.
-The Funds are estimated to be short 35-40,000 contracts of corn, long 130,000-135,000 contracts of soybeans and short 85,000-90,000 contracts of wheat.
-Warmer weather is allowing lots of grain to be moved across the U.S. Basis levels remain a bit defensive.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy 2-sided trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.78 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.37 3/4 which is the high from February 6th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.01 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.59 1/4 which is the high from February 6th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.47 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA increased their annual export projection on corn but left domestic usage alone. By increasing exports by 100 million bushels this also allowed the USDA to decrease their World carryout number as well, keeping us rather tight across the World. We still have plenty of corn and the safrinha corn crop in Brazil seems to be getting planted on time and in good conditions so no concerns there yet. It will ultimately come down to the U.S. and how many corn acres we grow in 2026. The domestic demand for corn in the U.S. is still in question, and the USDA will not make any changes until we see the Grain Stocks report on March 31. That will just add to the importance of that report. I look for March corn to continue to consolidate.
The USDA did not make any changes to the U.S. balance sheet on soybeans but did increase their projection for the Brazilian soybean crop. This was not a surprise. The USDA is now projecting Brazil to grow a 180 mmt soybean crop, which is a record, but many private analysts are thinking the crop is 182-185 mmt. We still have China “considering” buying more cash soybeans from the U.S. so that is supporting the market and probably a reason why the Funds have built a decent long position. Globally we have plenty of soybeans but here in the U.S., if China buys up to 8 mmt more soybeans, things can get tight. Yesterday’s close on March soybeans was the highest close since December 4th.
The USDA made a minor change to the U.S. balance sheet, increasing carryout stocks by 5 million bushels. March Kansas City wheat held support at the 100-day moving average and are now bouncing off that support. The key area to watch is to trade and close above the 200-day moving average, which is at $5.47 1/2 today. If we can trade and close above the 200-day moving average, we will likely see the Funds cover their short position.
