February 3, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.10-$0.11,
💲US Dollar is up 2-3 points
-Weekly export inspections were within their respective trading ranges. Corn exports are still running well ahead of the USDA projection of 3.2-billion-bushel export pace.
-March soybeans traded double digits lower yesterday before bouncing back and closing out the day above the 20-day moving average.
-President Trump made a trade deal with India. They will stop buying Russian oil and buy U.S. or Venezuelan oil. Trump lowered tariffs from 25% to 18%.
-Brazil’s soybean crop seems to be getting bigger. USDA is still projecting a 178-179 mmt soybean crop while most analysts are well over 180+ mmt soybean crop.
-Corn and soybeans continue to find support on breaks but we sure struggle to rally to much so look for a range bound trade.
🐂🐻 Look for mixed to higher trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from November 24th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the low from November 21st.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.60 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 which is the 50-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.85 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.04 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.50 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures are very quiet here this morning. Weekly export sales were decent yesterday but were at a 22-week low. That shows just how strong our corn export demand is. Exports are still running well ahead of the pace needed to achieve the USDA export projection of 3.2 billion bushels. If we continue to see strong export sales and inspections, there is a strong likelihood the USDA could increase the annual export projection on corn. Basis levels are steady to firm most places. The western corn belt continues to see the widest basis levels as we continue to pickup ground piles from harvest. I still think March corn trades between $4.15 and $4.35.
Coming into this week of trading, I thought soybeans could be under some pressure. After trading double digits lower yesterday morning, we saw some buying surface and, on the day, March soybeans ended the day lower but only down 4 cents. The U.S. soybeans continue to be a premium to Brazilian soybeans so once we ship out the 12 mmt of soybeans China bought, I would look for our export sales and inspections to underperform. What I find interesting though, is we have thrown a lot of bearish news at this soybean market, yet we are trading closer to $11.00 futures than $10.00 futures. I still look for March soybeans to trade between $10.35 and $10.80.
Winter kill issues in the southern wheat plains are getting further behind us and not much to worry about. We are watching the potential winter kill in Russia but that won’t be known for a couple weeks yet. Marck Kansas City wheat was lower yesterday but found support at the 10-day moving average. They still remain in a nice uptrend since the middle of December. The big hurdle will be to trade and close above $5.50. Once above $5.50 I would expect the Funds to step in and cover their short positions.
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