September 17, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 30-40c,
💲US Dollar is up 12-13 points.
-The U.S. Dollar is higher this morning after breaking out to the downside yesterday.
-The EPA is looking for public comment on a plan to reallocate certain percentages of the blending obligations waived by SRE’s.
-Brazil is looking to increase its ethanol production by 17% over the next 2 years. Most of the increase will be from corn-based ethanol.
-The U.S. weather still looks to remain above normal for temperatures and some precipitation in the northwest part of the corn belt.
-Friday President Trump and President Xi will hold a phone call to discuss many things including tariffs.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy to mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.17 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.27 1/42which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.63 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.30 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Yesterday’s action was a bit disappointing. We took out last Friday’s high, but we still closed under Friday’s close. Harvest is ramping up across the corn belt and yes yields are disappointing but there are also some pretty good yields out there too. The weather forecast looks great for harvest pressure to ramp up this week with only rain coming in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The rest of the corn belt should be on the dry side. Look for rallies to be sold but dips will be bought as many feel this national corn yield is still going to get lowered more by the USDA.
November soybeans are battling it out at the $10.50 level. Early soybean yields seem to be pretty good with a feeling that the later maturity soybeans will see yields drop off due to the dry finish we had in the U.S. this past 45 days. President Trump and President Xi will hold a phone call on Friday with another call scheduled in the coming weeks. This news is helping support soybeans as some are feeling we could be getting closer to a trade deal with China. In the meantime, China has a lot of their soybeans booked up through November so one has to ask if a trade deal is done with China, how many soybeans will they buy from the U.S. this marketing year?
Kansas City and Chicago wheat both broke out above their 20-day moving averages yesterday while Minneapolis wheat found resistance at their 20-day moving average. The U.S Dollar broke down below 97 yesterday helping make U.S. wheat more competitive in the World market. Wheat continues to be a follower of corn and soybeans so look for a little pullback here today but the 20-day moving average on Kansas City and Chicago wheat should be good support.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 19, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
September 22, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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