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I hope your week was great and the weekend even better. I know this system that ran through the Midwest was intense for some. Around our area, there was a couple of tornadoes that wreaked havoc on buildings, etc and fortunately, I haven’t heard of anyone getting hurt. We were holed up in the basement with the phones going crazy about taking shelter etc, so there was some nervousness, but on our farm, the worst we have is a few limbs down here and there. These spring storms can be a doozy for sure. This past week we put all of our anhydrous on, so that is a big relief. It was dry out, and this storm didn’t bless us with a two inch rain like we were hoping-but we had a nice shower nonetheless. It’s crazy how dry it has gotten in so many areas. About everywhere I’ve been this winter growers have talked about how dry they are. We better hope Mother Nature blesses us with timely rains this coming year. Keep the feedback coming my way-I appreciate hearing from you. mbennett@agmarket.net
The corn market lost over a dime while beans lost ground but not near as much. With the market beholden to tariff talk, volatility in many markets has been the theme. While it doesn’t change the fundamentals I like to talk about, if money heads to the sidelines like we’ve seen of late, it’s tough to rally. Outside markets were mixed in contribution. April crude settled up .63 on Friday at 67.18-up .14 on the week. The Dollar leveled out a bit, settling down .125 at 103.705-down .107 on the week. The DOW was up 647 on Friday, settling at 41,510-down another 1,328 for the week.
CORN – The corn market lost more ground on the week as sellers remained active. May corn settled at $4.58 ½, down 6 ¾. This was a nickel off the high and 2 off the low. May corn was down 10 ¾ cents on the week. The COT report showed more selling yet this past week. With 74k contracts sold as of Tuesday’s close, the funds were down to a 132k contract long. It’s interesting to see the funds running for the exits heading into the growing season given fundamentals. While acreage is likely to be quite high this spring, the US and world balance sheets continue to tighten. Corn usage hasn’t been backing off enough especially when it comes to exports. I think the USDA will be forced to raise US exports in April or May, which would get old-crop carry down to maybe even 1.4 billion bushels. IF that’s the case, even big corn acres will necessitate a yield high enough it may be hard to attain. Big acres typically mean lots of fringe acres, so weather uncertainty will be high. I’m sitting on my hands for now as is our AgMarket team. While we rarely want to sound bullish, we see this as getting supportive as the lack of weather premium and strong demand keep chewing into stocks.
DEMAND – Demand was mixed iwth with similar exports and lower corn grind. This past week the USDA reported net corn sales for the current marketing year of 967k tons, around 60k better than a week ago. With 13k new-crop sales, we saw overall sales up just a shade. The Department of Energy’s EIA report reported lower corn grind. With right at 105 mb, corn usage for ethanol was down by around 4 mb. Stocks were down again but remain fairly high. Posted basis levels were steady/better. My local basis is 28 under the May-9 cents improved. Decatur, basis was 8 under over the May-no change. On the river in St. Louis, basis was a nickel over the May-3 cents improved.
CASH CORN – Cash corn lost ground in most areas, with some basis improvements trying to help. My local bid didn’t change much as some of these elevators have been pushing bids on the downturn. In all honesty, it’s nice to see basis improve on the lower markets but it still stinks. With many in the trade thinking exports will get adjusted higher, some are wondering if we’ll lose a bit of that on feed. Some feed wheat has worked into rations on feedlots in the west and southwest, but I don’t think it’s near enough to counter the additional export demand. My thoughts on old-crop would be some patience after the markets have done what they have. I’m not saying it will definitely rally by any means, but I can’t get excited about making sales with where prices are today. Offers should be in to sell incrementally, especially if you have more than gambling bushels. I’d let this market move closer to where we’ve been before getting too aggressive-but that’s just my opinion.
2025 CORN – December 2025 performed a little better than May this past week. With a settlement of $4.51, CZ25 was down 3 ¼ cents. Dec25 in my opinion has little in the way of weather premium for this market. Given tightening balance sheets, even big acres could result in lower stocks, both in the world and US IF we don’t see a big-time yield. With major world exporters seeing stocks decline at the same time the US has declining stocks, grain originators will have heightened sensitivity to any sort of weather issues. We didn’t have that opportunity the last year or so, but this year we’re tight enough to assume this volatility is possible. Now, who knows what this world trade and tariff situation provide for market issues? It’s tough to know. However, what will ultimately determine price is supply and demand, and in that we finally have a story. Growers should have offers in on rallies, but I’m not in a hurry to sell anything below $4.70 and would do so with flex at that. IF you can pencil a profit, there’s nothing wrong with stepping in and selling, but given weather uncertainties, I’d be cautious as to get too overleveraged. It’s all about locking in profit margins, and a great way to do that is by using something like the AgMarket app. Keeping tabs on how input prices play into your marketing plan is good risk management. https://www.agmarket.app/app/
BEANS – The bean market also moved on the week but performed better than corn. On Friday, May beans closed up 5 ¼ at $10.16. This was 2 off the high and 10 ½ off the low of the day. May beans lost 9 cents on the week. May bean meal settled at 305.9, up 1.5 on the week, while May soy oil closed at 41.59, down 1.93. The bean market has stabilized somewhat, but buyers are certainly not showing up to a great degree. Contrary to corn though, the COT report showed funds bought 16k contracts, which trimmed the bean short to 8k contracts. While they aren’t long just yet, the transition from short to a long and back short was concerning to say the least. Maybe there will be a reason to see beans get bought-one of those reasons could certainly be lower bean acres here in 2025. IF corn acers end up at 95 ma or more, there’s no doubt bean acres will fall a fair amount considering they were at 87 last year. As well, I can’t get too excited about selling beans, especially new-crop this early in the year and with many not sure these prices will be high enough to call it a profit.
DEMAND – Soybean exports were a pleasant surprise. With 752k tons posted for the current marketing-year and 43k for new, overall bean sales were around 400k more than last week’s total. Basis was steady/improved. Local bids for me were posted at 37 under the May-eight cents improved. Decatur’s basis was option the May-10 cents improved. On the river, basis was 12 over the May-six cents improved.
CASH BEANS – Cash beans lost some ground, but it didn’t amount to much given the basis improvement. Clearly, there are some areas that are willing to bid a bit more for beans, so some tightness moving forward could become a thing. For those with old beans, most are likely down to gambling bushels. I’d be patient for now as the same rationale applies as it does for corn in my opinion. There’s not much weather premium for new-crop and with old-crop beans seemingly tightening up, I’d assume any bean rally would be led by cash. I’d consider giving this a little time.
2025 BEANS – November 2025 lost some ground on the week but a bit less than old crop. Nov25 closed at $10.18-down 7 ½ cents. Nov beans have seen prices all too close to $10 and below of late. However, it seems we’ve found some support down here as prices have stabilized for now. It’s tough to get real bullish beans, but at the same time, with reduced acreage, there could be a good story for this new-crop bean situation. IF we reduce bean acres to 83 ma or less, it would get the US balance sheet to razor-thin status without a big-time yield. I think that sort of acreage is possible given the lack of profit margins in planting beans. A ton of growers this winter told me they were going to a heavier corn rotation, so my head is centered around 83 or so for now. Another thing to consider on beans is of course the world balance sheet. Tight US stocks could be somewhat overwhelmed by plentiful world stocks. Therefore, trusting a rally has too much in the way of legs may be unwise. I like having some target orders in at levels I can live with. Personally, I’m not interested at this point in the year unless we get back to and over the spring insurance price of $10.54-and if that price doesn’t work, be stingy even there. It’s too early in the year to be locking in a loss.
As always, be sure to figure break-evens when deciding whether you want to make sales. For figuring your break-evens, I recommend using the AgMarket.Net Profitability App https://www.agmarket.app/app/ to help you get a handle on your budgets and to set your marketing plan for 2024. I’d be glad to help, so be sure to reach out.
**For the strategies I talk about on here, please remember these are the tools I use for my farm. These are not recommendations but merely a way for the reader to see how I approach marketing for my operation. There are tons of good tools out there. For more information on markets, strategies and ways to set up a solid marketing plan, visit my website at https://agmarket.net
I hope you have a great week. Please let us know if we can help you in any way.
Matt
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