Today – reality of the USDA numbers is starting to set in. We are finally seeing USDA make the changes we have been touting for nearly a year. For example, corn feed use will now accurately reflect the GCAU that are out there. Expect more support in 2019 corn and bean contracts based on big picture repercussions from the fundamental changes made yesterday
We are holding long old crop positions but we are starting to sell 10% corn and 15% beans for 2020 crop. These are good prices to start at.
For today – weather in the US does not seem threatening. S American weather likely to improve with a better monsoonal outlook in the next 3 weeks. But stocks numbers have a massive impact on 2018 and 2019 as you carry these numbers forward. Cash markets remain strong so at this point, buying old crop on breaks should show up. Chart resistance is at 412-420 in corn and 930-960 beans
Crop conditions did show that
| Acres in Dent stage | ||
| 30-Sep | ||
| % Dent | Dent | Pre-Dent |
| 85% | 9.10 | 1.61 |
| 84% | 4.28 | 0.82 |
| 90% | 12.24 | 1.36 |
| 96% | 6.14 | 0.26 |
| 99% | 1.58 | 0.02 |
| 72% | 1.44 | 0.56 |
| 72% | 5.69 | 2.21 |
| 96% | 3.12 | 0.13 |
| 95% | 9.50 | 0.50 |
| 75% | 2.63 | 0.88 |
| 70% | 1.96 | 0.84 |
| 84% | 3.78 | 0.72 |
| 100% | 0.97 | 0.00 |
| 67% | 2.58 | 1.27 |
| 85% | 65.01 | 11.16 |
| 86% | 80.13 | 12.67 |
| 88% | 81.66 | 11.14 |
| 3 state | 12.09 | 3.81 |
| US-N states | 8.8621 | |
| Est US HA at risk | 11.54 | |
| 169 | ||
| BU at risk of frost | 1,951 | |
| 14,397 | ||
| 14% | ||
| Bu @risk in N States | 643.383 | |
Please take time to watch video
https://www.agmarket.net/q-stocks-creates-complex-problem-for-new-crop-supply-demand-tables/
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