Thursday Morning Comments

Good Morning!

I haven’t gotten in the field just yet…but should today.  We have some beans we should be able to get into as long as the weather cooperates.  Our day Wednesday didn’t produce much in the way of shower activity on my farm, but with the clouds, few if any were cutting beans.  Our forecast is looking like we’ll have mostly clear weather, with a chance for showers over the weekend.  If I can get these beans cut, which should take a couple of days, I’ll then nose out into some corn to see if we can get started anyway.  Given how good our weather has been in our part of the world, we’ve certainly seen some drying occur thanks to mother nature.  I keep hearing yields that are mostly below last year…some yields by a fair bit.  Only time will tell, but we need to start hearing about more yields that are impressive if we are going to reach the USDA goal of 168.2.  Keep sending yields if possible.  I appreciate the info.

The corn and bean markets had differing days on Wednesday with corn higher on the overnight before settling quietly, while beans were off on the day.  While harvest weather looks to be a real challenge across the corn-belt, little buying was showing up as traders seem content with positions for the time being.  The quarterly stocks report on Monday could loom large as many feel the USDA has been a bit heavy on US stocks for much of this past marketing year.  As we get closer to that report, I wouldn’t be surprised by a pickup in activity.  As far as the outside markets are concerned, a negative feel was the case, as the Dollar index was up on the day while crude was lower.  November crude oil was down 78 cents at $58.51.  This was 52 cents off the high and 96 off the low of the day.

Corn – The corn market was steady to higher on the overnight and continued that feel at the start of the day session before going quiet into the close.  December corn ended the day at $3.74 ¼, down a half-penny.  This was 3 ¼ cents off the high and 2 off the low.  Ethanol numbers from the EIA report showed corn usage for ethanol sharply lower at just under 94.5 billion bushels.  This is off from last week’s usage by 6 million bushels.  The corn market seems to find selling pressure on any moves higher…but on the same token, the selling seems to have dried up when it comes to running the market lower.  It’s been a quiet week so far, but that’s not all bad.  With plenty of talk around the US and China as well as an agreement the US made with Japan, this week we have positive trade vibes.  Hopefully those will be well warranted.  I’m of the opinion I’m going to hold off on sales…given where I’m at so far.

Soybeans – Soybeans closed lower as buyers were on the sidelines.  November beans ended the day down a nickel at $8.89 ¼.  The close was 8 ½ cents off the high and 4 off the low.  The bean market has been all over the place of late.  With a nice run for part of the day on Tuesday, the settle wasn’t quite as good and Wednesday we saw much of those gains mitigated.  With demand a huge concern even with China buying US beans, it seems buyers are hesitant to own beans.  It makes it tough to see bean prices on the board down here as most basis levels are fairly wide.  In my area, the bid is around $8.40…so we’re looking at lower prices than we saw last fall with yields 10-20 bu/ac under as well.  Obviously, bean income is going to leave much to be desired.  While I know there will be some solid beans in places, it would seem unlikely to assume yields will be close to last year given the average planting dates.  Given that, I want to hold off on furthering sales…and see how the quarterly stocks and October Supply and Demand reports go.  If yields continue to come in below what producers were expecting, I’d think we’d see support for these bean prices.

Call me if you want to talk positions or strategy.


Matt Bennett

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