Good Morning!
It’s another hot October week so far. With temps hitting 90 on both Monday and Tuesday, it sure doesn’t feel like fall just yet. We’re forecasted to get a shower Tuesday into Thursday, so my hope is we get some meaningful rain given we haven’t had any in some time. While some fieldwork is going on, we’ve decided to see how this rain goes before getting at it. There are several guys locally who are wrapping up harvest, and with virtually no breaks in the action this fall, it’s not hard to fathom. I have heard from many of you who are getting a good go at it after sitting due to wet conditions. Any of you who have harvest reports to share with me would be appreciated. I’ve heard from several in Nebraska reporting their dismay at USDA raising their state yield 11 bushels. Keep in mind even at 11 higher they’d be 6 lower than a year ago. Either way, the more results I hear, the better idea I will have on further adjustments I see in the works. Keep me posted and stay safe. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market rallied while beans were lower on Monday, while beans continued a bit lower on Tuesday as corn was quiet. Harvest pressure is a likely feature with activity brisk over the last few days. Outside markets likely had a negative impact:
- The US Dollar settled down .396 at 101.979.
- November crude oil settled up .40 at 94.14.
- The DOW settled down 175 points at 51,935.
Corn – After settling up 3 on Monday, the corn market tried moving higher but settled quietly on Tuesday. December corn closed down ¼ at $4.82 ¾. This was 1 ½ off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were around expectations at 51.3 million-bushels. These shipments were 300k lower than a week ago. Corn harvest came in at 33% complete, just 10% of progress on the week and well behind the 39% 5-year average. While harvest can move rapidly, the trade will likely keep an eye on how good this weather holds due to the slower pace. Some quality issues continue to be discussed in those areas that stayed wet so long with some reporting to me from Nebraska tar spot was a big issue. While we have to respect the USDA number as it will be the gospel for now, I’m still struggling to see my state of Illinois at 208 bu/ac. Many growers in big-yielding areas have reported big yield drops from 2025 due to nitrogen loss, ponding etc. I know there’s some good corn out there, but the lack of ‘record yield’ stories this year sticks out like a sore thumb to me. I still feel like corn will be good property. If a person wants to keep some ownership, doing so on paper makes sense and if storage/DP costs aren’t too high, that’s not a bad option for a few bushels. I do expect basis to narrow quite a bit as harvest winds down, which would likely help pay for some storage. Either way, if I was selling, I’d sure consider keeping ownership to some degree. Dec27 corn settled down ¾ at $5.11 ½.
Soybeans – Soybeans lost a bit of ground on both Monday and Tuesday. November beans settled down 4 at $12.83 ¾. This was 14 off the high and 8 ½ off the low. October soybean meal was down 5.5 at 370.1, while soy oil was down .63 at 67.67. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 40.3 mb, dipping again and below expectations. an increase from a week ago levels and above expectations. The bean harvest advanced 19% on the week to 46%-this is still behind the 5-year pace of 50%. As with corn, traders will be monitoring weather moving forward, but we all know a ton of bean acres can be harvested quickly. I still feel like the bean and corn crops are two different deals this year. Many of you have reported record or close to record yields. This makes sense given the 53.1 the USDA printed would be a new record yield nationally. While I could see yield going up, as stated many times, bean demand is stout to say the least. It’s tough to be bullish during harvest and hard to be bearish due to huge demand. One thing is for sure-weather is questionable this year but we can’t afford to see a hiccup in South America. I believe until we get a better handle on their production, beans will see some measure of support. Nov27 beans settled at $12.57 ¾, down 3 ½.
Matt Bennett