October 14, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 3-5c
🛢️crude oil is up $1.23,
-A historically strong El Nino is setting up. It is looking to peak out in November or December.
-EPA confirms 100% reallocation for SRE’s.
-Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange attacks and they are still targeting energy facilities.
-U.S. harvest progress shows corn at 33% complete, 6% behind the 5-year average and soybeans are 46% complete, 4% behind the 5-year average.
-Weekly export inspections had corn inspections at the upper end of trading range while soybeans clipped below the low-end expectations.
-U.S. corn prices continue to find stiff competition from Argentina, making Argentina cheaper than U.S. corn.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.79 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.93 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.93 which the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.07 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.72 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.99 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.95 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.25 which is the 20-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.87 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.30 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn harvest is making progress, but we are still behind the 5-year average by 6%. The weather across the U.S. this week looks to bring some rain to parts of the U.S., delaying them by 1-2 days but other than that, we should see good harvest activity. On the World market, Argentina continues to be more competitive on corn that the U.S. and taking some of the World export market away from the U.S. With corn harvest in full swing, I would look for the U.S. to take over being the cheapest corn in the World soon. Weekly export inspection was good this week, but we need to see our weekly corn export sales pick up soon, otherwise we take the risk of our export demand getting lowered. I look for December corn to continue to consolidate between $4.70 and $4.95.
Harvest is getting close to be on the downhill slide. Last week was a big soybean harvest week and looking at the weather across the U.S. this week, we should have another big week of soybean harvest. China has been quiet on purchasing more soybeans from the U.S., but we could see that change here soon. Harvest will be well over 50% at the end of this week and once we see harvest get past the halfway point, we could see China step in and buy the rest of the 25 MMT they agreed to buy from the U.S. November soybeans are running into resistance in the $12.90 to $12.95 area as we approach the $13.00 level, we are seeing hedge pressure pick up. Soybeans are also getting a little support from more and more talk of El Nino strengthening. A strong El Nino could bring drier weather to parts of Brazil, potentially cutting their production.
Report of Russia striking another Ukrainian energy facility just signals there is no peace deal that is going to happen anytime soon. I think the market is starting to ignore the “talk” of a potential peace deal. Both Russia and Ukraine are looking for other ways to get their grains out on the World market but that won’t happen very fast. This is supportive to U.S. grain prices in the short term.
