September 30, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 78-80c,
💲US Dollar is down 15-16 points.
-The USDA will release their Grain Stocks report here their morning at 11:00 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn 1.337 billion bushels, soybeans 323 million bushels and wheat 2.043 billion bushels.
-The U.S. Government has not agreed on a spending bill yet and it looks like the Government will shut down at 11:59 pm tonight.
-Corn and soybean harvest came in very close to the 5-year average pace. Corn is 18% harvested compared to 19% 5-year average and soybeans were 19% harvested compared to 20% 5-year average.
-Soybean harvest by the end of the week could be pushing over 50% done and corn harvest could be pushing 30% complete.
-Weekly export inspections out yesterday saw corn and wheat at the upper end of their expected ranges with soybeans coming in at the low end of trade expectations.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as the potential Government shut down looms.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.18 1/4 which is the low from September 22nd. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.51 1/4 which is the low from September 22nd. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.65 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.10 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
All eyes will be on the USDA today. Grain Stocks report will come out at 11:00 am CDT and the trade is looking for corn stocks to come in at 1.337 billion bushels. There is some speculation out there we could see stocks increase as a combination of lower stocks fed to livestock and maybe last year’s corn crop was bigger than expected. Once we digest the USDA report numbers the trade will shift back to harvest pressure and potential Government shut down. One thing I have learned is the trade does not like the “unknown” and a government shut down is just that. Traders like to head to the sidelines with their money to see how things work out.
19% of the U.S. soybeans are harvested and we could possibly be over 50% done at the end of this week. The weather looks wide open for the majority of the U.S. and soybean harvest pace could be a record pace this week. Traders are looking for USDA Grain Stocks to come in at 323 million bushels and typically we don’t see too many major changes on soybeans in this report. The looming government shut down will probably be a bigger story for the soybeans here today. Add on top of that a fast harvest pace and we have November soybeans back down testing support around $10.05. Barring any surprises from the USDA, look for soybeans to grind around the $10.00 level today.
December Kansas City wheat futures were higher yesterday while corn and soybeans were lower. This in itself is positive. Weekly export inspections were strong again this week helping support the wheat prices. Today traders are looking for wheat stocks to come in around 2.043 billion bushels. I don’t look for any surprise in the wheat market today but with the looming government shut down, wheat futures will have a hard time rallying too much.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 30, 2025 – Grain Stocks Report
October 6, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
