September 25, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 6-7c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is down 30-32c,
💲US Dollar is down 7-8 points.
-Flash sale of 312,956 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 101,400 metric tons of soybean meal to Guatemala was announced yesterday.
-The Argentine government announced that the goal or reaching $7 billion U.S. in exports has been reached. Starting today export duties will go back on all grains in Argentina.
-Export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 1,000,000-1,800,000 metric tons, soybeans 600,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybean meal 150,000-450,000 metric tons and wheat 300,000-600,000 metric tons.
-The 6-10-day and 8-14-day weather maps are calling for above normal temps across much of the U.S. and some precipitation in the western part of the corn belt.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.22 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.58 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.11 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Reports out of Argentina that they secured the revenue they were looking for so the export duties will go back into effect today. December corn held support earlier this week and are back trending sideways. USDA will release their Quarterly Grain Stocks report next Tuesday. Harvest progress is pushing along with very few issues. Corn prices will probably trade between $4.20 and $4.32 until we get the updated Grain Stocks report on Tuesday. Could the USDA find more corn stocks in this report? That is a possibility. We saw a lot of old crop corn hit the elevators/processors over the past 30 days.
November soybeans seem to have found a new support level of $10.05 here this week. Harvest progress will ramp up with peak harvest hitting the U.S. probably next week. Yields continue to come in about as expected with a few issues being noted. We broke support at $10.21 earlier this week so that is now resistance and will be a tough area to close back above. The news out of Argentina about them putting export duties back on all their grains is positive for U.S. grain prices. The market continues battle between yields possible moving lower, but the upside seems to be capped with the absence of China buying U.S. soybeans.
December Kansas City wheat tested and failed to close above the 20-day moving average yesterday. The are back testing it again here this morning. A close above $5.12 in December Kansas City wheat should push them up to $5.25-$5.26. Overall, it has been a decent week for wheat futures on putting in a bottom where they put in their low early this week and have not tested that low since.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 29, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
September 30, 2025 – Grain Stocks Report
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