September 24, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 62-63c,
💲US Dollar is up 41-42 points.
-Flash sale of 122,947 metric tons of corn to Mexico.
-Corn harvest at 11% complete, right in line with the 5-year average.
-More well-known analysts are coming out with lower yields on corn. Some are even below 180 bushels per acre.
-November soybeans broke support earlier this week and are still struggling while December corn futures held support yesterday.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy to mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.20 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.55 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.12 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures held support yesterday and posted a 4-cent gain. More well-known crop analysts are coming out with corn yields well below the USDA current projection of 186.7 bushels per acre and most have a lower bias moving forward. This is setting up as a “buy the dip” type market and so far, the dips have been shallow. When looking on a continuation chart, we still have a gap down at $4.05 1/4 when September futures went off the board. Harvest is picking up steam with many areas surprised how dry the corn is. The weather looks to be warmer and drier for most of the U.S. over the next 2-weeks so look for the upside to be limited with a fast harvest pace.
November soybeans broke support at $10.21 earlier this week and are still struggling. Argentina cutting their export duties on all grains was not exactly what the soybean market needed to hear. With China absent from buying any U.S. soybeans, traders are wondering how many bushels will the USDA cut out of their annual export projection in the October Crop Production report? Harvest is ramping up across much of the U.S., and we should have a good week of harvest. Yields so far are coming in very good with the later maturity soybeans expected to see yields tail off a bit. Rallies on November soybeans will be limited here in the near term with harvest picking up across the U.S.
Maybe, just maybe the wheat market is finally putting in a low. December Kansas City wheat futures held Monday’s low and saw a 9-cent gain yesterday. This morning, December Kansas City wheat is struggling with the 20-day moving average but seem to be holding its ground. A close above $5.12 in December Kansas City wheat futures should see a move up towards $5.26 where the 50-day moving average comes into play.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 29, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
September 30, 2025 – Grain Stocks Report
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