September 23, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 65-66c,
💲US Dollar is down 1-2 points.
-Argentine Government decided to eliminate export duties on all grain exports until October 31, 2025, or $7 billion in exports has been liquidated.
-Rumors floating that China has bought 10 cargoes of corn from Argentina.
-U.S. had a flash sale of corn to Mexico yesterday of 320,068 metric tons.
-Basis levels on corn and soybeans continue to be under a lot of pressure, especially in the west.
-Corn and soybean spreads are weaker as harvest picks up steam.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy to lower trade to start out the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.20 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.54 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.12 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures are down testing support here again today. Argentina put their grains on sale yesterday morning in a way to generate some cash and get rid of last year’s extra supplies. Argentina recently lowered their export duties but that was not enough and are now at 0. They will keep the export duties off all grain sales until October 31st or until they sell $7 billion of export goods. It is reported that Argentina has about $9 billion in export goods to sell. December futures are testing support around $4.20 and holding so far. There is still a gap on the continuation chart down to $4.05 1/4 and if we don’t hold support soon, we could head down and fill that gap.
Soybean futures broke down below support yesterday and are now looking to test the next level of support right around $10.00. With China not buying any soybeans from the U.S. and now Argentina eliminating their export duties, this adds more pressure to our markets and harder for the U.S. to stay competitive. Soybean harvest is picking up and so far, the early yields on soybeans seem to be pretty good across the U.S. Soybean futures continue to stay in the $9.80 to $10.70 trading range we have been in for the past 12+ months.
December Kansas City wheat futures traded down below the $5.00 level yesterday but managed to close above the $5.00 at the end of the day. The are back testing the $5.00 again here today as the wheat is doing its best to carve out a major low in here. Corn and soybeans under pressure yesterday added pressure to the wheat market. I feel the downside risk in wheat is low at these levels but until corn can turn back higher, wheat futures will grind sideways to a little lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 29, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
September 30, 2025 – Grain Stocks Report
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