September 18, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 53-54c,
💲US Dollar is up 3-4 points.
-Soybeans lower as the EPA is looking for a 45-day comment period surrounding the reallocation of RVO’s vs the market looking for a decision now.
-Heavy rains across the Dakotas and Minnesota will push back harvest a few days while the rest of the corn belt will push forward.
-Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures closed above the 20-day moving average for the second day in a row yesterday. Today they are a little bit higher and using the 20-day moving average as support.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 500,000-1,500,000 metric tons, soybeans 400,000-1,500,000 metric tons, soybean meal 100,000-350,000 metric tons and wheat 300,000-650,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy to mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.18 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.53 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.27 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.63 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.29 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are very quiet here this morning. Corn harvest is pushing forward, and many farmers are getting ready to switch over to start on soybeans. Yield reports continue to come in all over the board. We are starting to hear of some better-than-expected corn in the country. The big issue the market is struggling with is even though we have a corn yield that should get revised lower, we still have 91.2 million acres of corn that will get harvested for grain and we still should have a record yield on those acres. This harvest could have a long tail on it as we are short space to handle this massive crop.
Soybean harvest is picking up steam and so far from the yields we have been hearing, the soybean crop seems to be as advertised. Now, the later maturity beans should see a yield drag and that is where we think the USDA will revise their national yield lower in future reports. The EPA did not make any decisions regarding the SRE’s and instead are looking for a 45-day comment period. Th The proverbial “kick the can down the road” is not what the soybean complex was looking for. Soybeans continue to look range bound here between $10.25 and $10.60.
Wheat futures are quietly establishing a potential low in here. Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures held above the 20-day moving average again yesterday and are using that level as support heading into today. I don’t expect wheat to put in a sharp bottom and then rally up hard but rather put in some higher lows and higher highs.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 19, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
September 22, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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