September 15, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 28-30c,
💲US Dollar is down 10-11 points.
-USDA lowered the corn yield by 2.1 bushels per acre and lowered the soybean yield by 0.1 bushels per acre.
-USDA also increased planted acres on both corn and soybeans increasing corn acres by 1.4 million and soybeans by 200,000 acres.
-Ending stocks for U.S. corn are projected at 2.110 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels.
-The 6–10-day weather forecast is calling for above normal temperatures and some precipitation across much of the U.S. before turning dry in the eastern 1/2 of the U.S. in the 8-14-day forecast. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the end of September.
-USDA did increase corn export for the 2025/26 marketing year by 100 million bushels and are not projected at a record 2.975 billion bushels.
🐂🐻Look for a mostly lower trade here to start out the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.15 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.50 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.27 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.62 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.15 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA gave us a few surprises last Friday. Most traders were not surprised the USDA increased the corn planted acres number but just by the amount, 1.4 million more corn acres. That puts the U.S. at 98.7 million corn acres planted this year. USDA lowering the yield by 2.1 bushels per acre is not a surprise and most, if not all, traders will look for that number to get lowered again next month. A surprise to me was the USDA increasing exports by 100 million bushels. I felt last month when they were projecting annual exports at 2.875 billion bushels, that was aggressive enough. But to increase that by another 100 million bushels seems like they have built in a cushion that in the future if they drop the corn yield, they can cut a few bushels out of the export demand. I feel good to say we have our lows in, and the corn market will now be in a “buy the dip” mentality until we get closer to finishing up harvest and see how big this corn crop truly is.
The USDA made a few minor changes on the soybeans on Friday with the biggest surprise coming in with a 200,000 acre increase in planted acres. With planted corn acres increasing, you would think those acres would come at the expense of the soybeans. The USDA dropped the soybean yield by 0.1 bushels per acre, which is not surprising, and they cut exports by 20 million bushels. Overall, we saw a net increase in ending stocks by 10 million bushels and are projected to come in at 300 million bushels. Going forward, the biggest issue we have is no trade deal with China. As the USDA is likely to drop the U.S. soybean yield in future reports, they are likely to drop the exports as well, keeping ending stocks around the 300-million-bushel level. I feel soybeans will be supported but rallies will be limited.
The USDA made 1 change to the wheat balance sheet. The USDA increased exports by 25 million bushels and lowered ending stocks by the same and are now projected to come in at 844 million bushels. The trade action in wheat last Friday was initially disappointing. Once corn took off, wheat finally joined the party. The U.S. Dollar is lower here today to start the week helping U.S wheat to remain competitive in the World market. Look for wheat to remain a follower of corn and soybean prices.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 15, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
September 19, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
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