September 12, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up 25-27c,
💲US Dollar is up 17-18 points.
-USDA Crop Production report out at 11:00 am CDT here today. Here are the estimates: Corn yield 185.7 bushels per acre vs 188.8 bushels per acre in August, soybean yield 53.1 bushels per acres vs 53.6 bushels per acres in August.
-2025/26 Ending Stocks: Corn 2.029 billion bushels vs 2.117 billion bushels in August. Soybeans 298 million bushels vs 290 million bushels.
-Weekly export sales were disappointing for corn, soybeans and wheat. However, there was 1 soybean sale to China in the sales deck.
-8-14-day forecast calls for above normal temps for most of the U.S. with the rains mostly sticking to the western part of the corn belt.
-Yields continue to come in disappointing on corn with soybean yields mixed so far.
-Should be a big weekend of harvest activity across much of the Midwest.
🐂🐻Look for a quiet trade ahead of the USDA report and then at 1:00 am CDT, we will then trade the report numbers.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.14 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.27 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.62 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.18 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It is report day. All eyes will be on the USDA and what they will estimate the 2025/26 yields to be at. Traders are looking for a 3.1 bushel per acre decrease in yield and ending stocks still staying above 2 billion bushels in corn. One surprise we might get is the corn planted acres could be increased again this month. Some ideas are we could see 100,000-200,000 acres increase in planted corn acres. Also, the USDA does have a tendency to decrease demand in the September report if they cut the yield. So, if we do see a yield cut, then we could see some demand cut or potentially more corn acres planted. I still feel in the big pictures the National corn yield will drop further in future USDA reports.
On the soybeans, the yield potential is still high. We are hearing more reports about the dry finish to the soybean crop should drop the overall soybean yield but that will be on the later maturity soybeans, and we won’t get those beans combined for a few weeks yet. Trade is looking for a modest 1/2 bushel per acre yield cut and that seems very possible. Soybean ending stocks should still hang around 300 million bushels so we shouldn’t see too many surprises in the soybean report. If we do see an increase in planted corn acres, those acres will likely come from soybeans. I think if we get any major production cut in the soybean complex, the USDA will be quick to ratchet back demand, thus keeping ending stocks around the 300-million-bushel area.
Wheat market will be along for the ride today. The trade is looking for a slight reduction in U.S. ending stocks in the wheat complex. Exports continue to be off to a great start and with the cheaper U.S. Dollar, exports should stay strong this marketing year. Global wheat ending stocks are still on the tight side, but we face stiff competition from the Black Sea region and EU.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
September 15, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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