September 10, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 47-48c,
💲US Dollar is down 2-3 points.
-Weather continues to look very warm and dry for much of the U.S. to speed up harvest.
-Yields on corn continue to come in mixed with a general bias of less than expected.
-USDA will release its September Crop Production report on Friday at 11:00 am CDT. Trades are expecting a yield reduction on corn of 3.1 bushels per acre and 0.5 bushels per acre on soybeans.
-November soybeans are back testing support around the $10.26 area here this morning with December corn futures back below the downtrend line they have been playing with the past 7-10 days.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed and choppy trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.11 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.46 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.18 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Harvest is picking up steam here this week. Yields are coming in all over the board with a general bias of lower than expected. The southern rust is taking its toll across fields in Iowa with some reports of fields sprayed or not sprayed with fungicide making 30+ bushels per acre more. We are also hearing of some lighter test weight on the corn and that is a silent killer for yields. Overall, the market is expecting the USDA to lower their yield forecasts in their Crop Production report on Friday by about 3.1 bushels per acre.
November soybeans are back down testing support at $10.26 here this morning. There are a lot of major moving averages on soybeans in the $10.24-$10.27 area. Harvest is still a week or 2 away but the weather forecast should push harvest along quickly. Traders are looking for a modest yield decrease in the Crop Production report on Friday of 0.5 bushels per acre. South American farmer is gearing up to start planting soybeans this week. Early indications are for a 5% increase in soybean production in Brazil.
After a strong close to start out the week on Monday, wheat futures pulled back yesterday and are a touch lower this morning. Kansas City December wheat hit the 20-day moving average and found more selling. This is likely going to be what happens for a while until we can get corn to breakout to the upside and help pull the wheat futures higher. Look for wheat to consolidate between $5.00 and $5.20 on the December Kansas City wheat chart.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
September 15, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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