September 8, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.23-$1.25,
💲US Dollar is down 3-4 points.
-Some freezing temps were recorded across the upper Midwest over the weekend. Northern Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas got some frost, but the damage will be minimal to the overall crop size.
-The 6-10-day forecast looks to bring in much warmer temps and a drier pattern overall. This should speed up harvest in many areas.
-Commodity Funds were net buyer of corn last week and net sellers of soybeans and wheat. Funds are now holding a net short position of -91,487 and in soybeans they have a small, long position of about 11,964.
-November soybeans continue to find support on the major moving averages while December corn futures seem to be struggling with the downtrend channel and staying above it.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.09 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.44 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.20 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn harvest should pick up steam this week. As more and more farmers are getting into their fields they are finding mixed results. The facts are we still have a record crop out there. The question is just how big is the corn crop? Demand continues to be impressive, especially on the exports. December corn futures have been messing around with a downtrend line we have had in place since last April as traders are trying to figure out just how big this corn crop is. The Funds were net buyers and seem to be content to take off their risk on the short side and have been net buyers for the past few weeks. The question I have is will we be able to live up to the 605 million bushels increase in corn demand this marketing year? That is the question I think is keeping a lid on corn futures at the moment.
We had some frost across the Upper Midwest over the weekend. So far, the damage seems to be minimal. While many farmers are seeing their corn crop deteriorate, their soybean crop still looks optimistic. The 6-10-day forecast should push the soybeans along nicely to finish out as we will see a few combines get rolling on soybean harvest this week. November soybeans continue to find support around the $10.25 area, but upside is limited due to a big crop coming and China still not interested in buying any U.S. soybeans. Look for November soybeans to continue to grind in a $10.25-$10.65 trading range.
After posting fresh contract lows in all 3 wheat complexes last week, wheat futures look to try and stabilize. Demand remains good but anytime we see our markets firm up a bit, we get undercut by other countries and the U.S. is quickly uncompetitive. The Funds were net sellers of wheat last week. Wheat continues to be a follower in here so if/when corn breaks out to the upside, then look for wheat to breakout to the upside.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 8, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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