September 4, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is down 72-73,
💲US Dollar is up 15-16 points.
-Early planting, dry finish to the crop and disease pressure in pushing harvest along quicker than most have thought.
-Corn futures looked to be breaking out to the upside only to lose 5c yesterday and back into the downward channel.
-Traders still waiting on a final decision over the 45Z program.
-OPEC+ looks to boost production and that is weighing on crude oil.
-Even in light of many traders thinking the highest yields have been scored, we will likely still see record corn and soybean yields across the U.S.
-Fresh new lows for Kansas City wheat has the downtrend still intact.
🐂🐻Look for a mostly lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.08 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.43 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.60 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.06 3/4 which is the low from August 28th. Resistance comes in at $5.23 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn tried to rally yesterday, putting in a new high for the week and was above the downtrend line but failed, closed down 5c yesterday and now back in the downtrend channel they have been in since April. Harvest is picking up steam as the drier conditions in parts of the U.S. is pushing along the maturity. So far, yield reports have been a mixed bag. Even in light of all the disease pressure we are seeing this year, we will still get a record corn yield and a record production number. As December corn futures approach the $4.25-$4.30 area, we start to see a little farmer selling as we are getting close to the $4.00 cash level. With a very big corn crop harvest just ahead of us, cash movement will likely keep a lid on rallies for now.
Soybean futures saw another 9+ cent loss yesterday. Traders are still patiently waiting on any word on the 45Z program on the details. China is still absent from buying any U.S. soybeans and we are hearing talks that Brazil is now selling some soybeans for the October/November time frame which is typically business that is done out of the U.S. Harvest is getting closer as the dry areas of the U.S. are dropping leaves faster than normal. Traders will be anxious to see some actual results to see how much of yield we lost due to the dry finish. Keep in mind, the potential lower yield could be offset by reduced export demand with China on the sidelines. Look for soybeans to test key support at $10.26.
Wheat futures are following corn and soybeans and that trend is lower. Kansas City wheat futures are putting in fresh new contract lows. The U.S. was the cheapest wheat on the World market 1-2 weeks ago and now we are finding ourselves not the cheapest. Black Sea wheat continues to be very competitive and with the U.S. wheat not the cheapest, that will likely push prices to lower lows.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 8, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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