September 3, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.22-$1.23,
💲US Dollar is down 13-14 points.
-Corn crop ratings dropped 2% out of the good/excellent category last week but still rated 69% good/excellent while soybeans saw a 4% decline and are now rated 65% good/excellent.
-Monthly oilseed crush report saw total soybeans crushed come in at 204.8 million bushels vs expectations of 207.2 million bushels. With only August left we need to see a crush number at 183 million bushels to achieve USDA annual crush number. Last year in August we crushed 175.1 million bushels.
-Corn crushed for ethanol come in at 455.8 million bushels which was below expectations and below last year at 483.9 million bushels. Last August we crushed 480 million bushels and the pace needed this year to achieve USDA annual projection is 495 million bushels.
-Weekly export inspections yesterday saw corn and soybeans at the top end of expectations and wheat come in above expectations.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.07 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.42 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.26 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.60 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.13 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.06 3/4 which is the low from August 28th. Resistance comes in at $5.24 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn market started the day lower yesterday with some hedge pressure coming out of the 3-day weekend but managed to close 2-3c higher. December corn futures closed above t solid downtrend line we have in place since April 16th, so we are at a decision point for the bulls and bears in the market. We continue to hear reports of less than expected yields due to disease pressure. However, we have an undersold farmer that will likely bring more corn to town and yes, the yield is likely to come down, we still will probably have a record size crop with a record yield and 97+ million acres. On the December corn chart there is a gap up at $4.32 3/4 and that could be a focus area for the market. This is close to the 100-day moving average as well.
Soybeans saw double digit losses yesterday. The story with the soybeans is China. Without China buying U.S. soybeans traders have to wonder if we can achieve USDA export projection of 1.705 billion bushels. This year’s export projection is already down from 1.875 billion bushels, but one can make the case that without China buying, we could see an additional export reduction of 100 million or more bushels. We are hearing more and more disease talk that could be reducing yields and we have been drier than normal in the eastern part of the U.S., but it feels the market is more concerned we don’t have a deal with China yet. November soybeans have good support in the $10.25 area, but the top side seems to be limited to $10.60-$10.65.
Spring wheat futures scored a fresh new low yesterday while Kansas City and Chicago held their lows from last week. Export inspections were very strong again this week, above trade expectations so we have to really wonder just how much lower can we go in the wheat market? The Funds were net buyers of wheat last week so are we starting to see them ask the same question?
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 8, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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