August 6, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 91-92c,
💲US Dollar is down 4-5 points.
-December corn futures are testing $4.00 support here this morning.
-Rains moving through parts of South Dakota, Northeast Nebraska and Northwest Iowa here this morning while the rest of the U.S. is dry.
-Temperatures continue to remain very seasonal with the heat dome staying in the southwest part of the U.S. for now.
-More and more private analysts are indicating the national corn yield could be 185-188 bushels per acre while soybean crop is still in question but many suggesting close to 52.5 bushels per acre for now.
-Basis levels for corn and soybeans across the U.S. continue to weaken as we get closer to harvest.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 1/2 which is the low from August 30, 2024. Resistance is at $3.96 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.00. Resistance comes in at $4.15 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.66 1/4 which is the low from August 4th. Resistance is at $9.93 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.26 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.24 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures scored fresh new lows yesterday. Each day we seem to hear more and more analysts coming out with some big estimates on national corn yield and a big U.S. crop. There still is some concern regarding pollination with the warm nights but those concerns seem to be overshadowed by the thought that the “good” areas will simply pick up the poor areas. The Funds are in control and want to add to their short position and would estimate Funds to be 200,000-225,000 contracts short. Demand remains strong for U.S. corn but with the U.S. projecting a huge crop and South America wrapping up a huge crop, World supplies of corn don’t feel as tight as they did just 6 months ago.
Soybean futures did their best to stay positive but with corn and wheat pushing lower, soybeans did as well yesterday. November soybeans seem to have found some support around $9.86 but the Funds seem to be wanting to add to their shorts and build a bigger net short position. Weather forecasts look to bring a few rain showers for parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska and northern Iowa while the rest of the U.S. is mostly dry. However, the temperatures look to be seasonal as well. Without any major heat or a trade deal announced with China, look for soybeans to continue to grind lower.
All 3 wheat complexes saw selling pressure yesterday. Kansas City and Chicago wheat saw fresh contract lows. Funds continue to add to their already large net short position. Demand for U.S. wheat has been good the last few weeks but with the U.S. Dollar back above 98, we are less competitive, and we are seeing demand slow down a touch.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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