August 26, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.07-$1.08,
💲US Dollar is down 15-16 points.
-Weekly Crop Conditions this week had corn at 71% rated good/excellent, unchanged from last week and soybeans rated at 69% good/excellent which is up 1% from the previous week.
-Corn and soybean ratings are the highest rating for this time of year in the last 9 years.
-Weekly export inspections were solid again this week for corn, soybeans and wheat. With a little over 2 weeks left of the marketing year for corn and soybeans we could see the USDA have to increase their annual export projection by 25 million bushels on corn and maybe 5-10 million bushels on soybeans.
-The weather is a little cooler to start this week but them warming up to more normal temperatures by the weekend across much of the U.S. Precipitation is expected to be normal to slightly below normal.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.84 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $3.96 1/4 which is the high from August 1st.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.06 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.16 which is the high from August 1st.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $10.17 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.50 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.26 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.96 which is the low from August 20th. Resistance comes in at $5.09 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures closed out the day higher yesterday but well off of their highs. After rallying 24+ cents off their lows, December corn found some selling yesterday. Export inspections were strong again this week and it looks like the USDA will have to increase their export projection for the 2024-25 marketing year. Mexico continues to be a massive buyer of U.S. corn. As we head into harvest, we have a very under sold farmer and very likely a record crop. This combination will keep a lid on any major rally in the corn market. It is possible the USDA yield per acre number in August could be the highwater mark of the year and that will keep corn futures supported. I look for December corn futures to chop around between $4.00 and $4.25 with dips being supported and rallies being sold.
Soybeans tried to rally yesterday but rather sold off 10+ cents. The big news is we still don’t have a trade deal with China and that means we still do not have any soybean sales on the books with China for this upcoming marketing year. Over the weekend China made comments about U.S. protectionism is damaging the agricultural ties between the 2 countries. Comments like these makes it feel a trade deal with China is not getting done anytime soon. As November soybeans tested last week’s high, we saw some selling in the market as farmers look to move some soybeans here at harvest. November soybeans should find good support in the $10.25-$10.30 area but without a trade deal with China, rallies will likely be limited to $10.60-$10.75.
Wheat futures ended the day a little lower yesterday. Weekly export inspections were above trade estimates this week on wheat but that was not enough to rally wheat. The Funds continue to hold a tight grip on their big, short position in wheat. Look for wheat to continue to grind lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
September 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
September 8, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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