August 21, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 3-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up 62-64c,
💲US Dollar is down 1-2 points.
-Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is in the books. What did they find? Corn yield in Illinois is projected at 199.57 vs 204.14 last year. The 3-year average is 196.19. Soybean pod counts came in at 1479.22 vs 1419.11 last year and 1313.14 3-year average.
-Pro Farmer covered about half if Iowa yesterday and so far, what they have found is corn yields and soybean pod counts all running well above last year and the 3-year average.
-USDA announced a flash sale of 100,000 metric tons of corn to Columbia and 124,741 metric tons of corn to Mexico. Both are for the new crop marketing year.
-Weather is looking to cool down for much of the Midwest, however, the precipitation is supposed to be below average as well.
-December corn held support at $4.00 yesterday while November soybeans continue to hold above the major moving averages.
-Weekly export sales will be out here this morning at 7:30 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn -(100,000)-2,000,000 metric tons, soybeans -(300,000)-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 500,000-800,000 metric tons, and soybean meal -(100,000)-450,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.84 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.06 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.96 which is the low from August 20th. Resistance comes in at $5.13 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up and the story from Wednesday was Illinois corn yields are not as good as many had hoped. Tip back and disease pressure was the main culprit. As they moved into Iowa, yields seem to be better than expectations but still some issues. Overall, what Pro Farmer is finding is we will still have a big corn crop in the U.S. even if the yield comes down a little. Demand still continues to be robust with some more new crop export sales getting announced this week. December corn held above $4.00 yesterday and are a little higher this morning. Look for corn to continue to hold the $4.00 psychological level here this week.
Soybean pod counts continue to be impressive across all states. The potential is there to justify the USDA soybean yield estimate of 53.6 bushels per acre. The question remain is can we finish off this year’s soybean crop? Weather forecasts are calling for cooler temps and a dryer forecast in the 6-10 day. Not exactly what we would like to see but the cooler temps should help. The one key driver in the soybean complex is we still do not have any new crop soybean sales on the books with China. As the trade war moves forward this is a major point that will keep prices limited to the upside even if we see a yield reduction.
Technically speaking, wheat futures had a good day on Wednesday. After putting in a new low, wheat futures closed out the day higher giving us an outside day higher trade. Now, where do we go from here? Odds likely suggest we will consolidate here for a few days before moving potentially higher. The U.S. wheat is competitive in the World market, but overall demand has been slow lately. Look for wheat to grind sideways and hold support from yesterday’s low.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
August 25, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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