August 20, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 40-41c,
💲US Dollar is down 1-2 points.
-Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop tour continued to see corn yields come in better than last year and better than the 3-year average. Soybeans were also good, but we did see less pods in Indiana than last year but still above the 3-year average. Overall, it feels like the corn and soybean crop is as advertised.
-Pro Farmer crop tour results: Indiana corn at 193.82 vs 187.54 last year. Nebraska saw a corn yield of 179.50 vs 173.25 last year.
-USDA announced a flash sale of 228,000 metric tons of soybeans to Mexico for the new crop marketing year yesterday.
-The 6–10-day forecast is calling for below normal temps in the heart of the corn belt with below normal precipitation. The big question is how will the soybean crop finish this year?
-December corn futures are back down testing support at $4.00 here today.
-September Kansas City wheat closed yesterday under $5.00 and looking to push even lower.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.85 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.07 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.98 3/4 which is the low from August 18th. Resistance comes in at $5.14 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up and not much changed, corn yields continue to come in better than last year and better than the 3-year average. A cooler 6-10-day forecast should help allow the corn crop to finish off. The eastern corn belt continues to be on the dry side but what Pro Farmer has found in Ohio and Indiana so far should help confirm a large U.S. corn crop. Demand continues to run very strong with the U.S. export pace running the strongest in over 10 years. Rallies will be limited as Funds continue to hold a good-sized short position and no reason to cover that short position at this time.
The one take away from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is the soybean pod counts have been very good so far with the exception of Indiana yesterday. The key driver will be is how will the soybeans finish off this year and will we have or get enough moisture to fill those top pods? The new 6–10-day forecast is calling for below normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. November soybeans continue to hold above the major moving averages and the Funds are holding a small, short position. Just like the corn, I feel rallies will be limited until we get the combines out in the fields to get actual results.
Kansas City wheat futures broke below and closed below the $5.00 level yesterday. The trend remains down, and the Funds are still carrying a large short position across all 3 wheat complexes. The North Dakota spring wheat crop continues to come in better than expected on yields and the overall quality is pretty good. The wheat market is searching for some bullish news to try and stabilize and put in a low. For now, the trend is lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
August 25, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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