August 19, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 9-10c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.98-$0.99,
💲US Dollar is down 21 points
-Pro Farmer crop tour released their projection for Indiana and Nebraska. Both states saw a bigger drop than expected in corn and soybeans.
-Pro Farmer corn yield came in at 5.3% less than last year and 2.1% less than 3-year average in Indiana. Nebraska saw 8.9% reduction from last year and a 5.6% reduction from 3-year average.
-Pro Farmer pod count for soybeans in Indiana was down 4.2% from last year and down 3.4% from the 3-year average while Nebraska saw an 8.9% reduction from last year and a 1% reduction of 3-year average.
-Weather across the U.S. looks to cool down a bit the rest of the week with rains moving across the Midwest.
-Crude oil is back trading around $85 per barrel while diesel fuel is making new highs.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today with corn and soybeans higher and wheat likely lower.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.52 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the high from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.71 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $11.65 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.43 which is the high from July 24th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.75 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.56 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.26 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.77 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
Where do we go from Here:
The Pro Farmer crop tour continues to find disappointing results overall. Yes, there is some good crops out there but at the end of the day I like to compare their results to their last year estimate and the 3-year average estimate to get a sense of the overall trend. We know we are off of last year’s record yield but most of us feel last year’s crop was overstated so that puts into question, will this year’s crop stay above 180 bushels per acre? So far corn prices haven’t affected overall demand so the odds of higher prices down the road remain pretty good. I feel traders will want to see some actual yield results as the combines get rolling to get a better feel of the overall crop size. With harvest knocking on the door, we could see a little hedge pressure as December corn pushes the $5.00 mark as there is still a lot of corn that needs to come to town off the combine. I do look for corn to remain well supported on any break.
As I watch the results come in from the Pro Farmer crop tour the soybean pod counts so far seem to be the biggest disappointment. With the decent rains we have had so far in August, I thought pod counts would be closer to the 3-year average and last year’s estimate. We still have just under 2 weeks of August left so maybe these soybeans will surprise us, but they are going to have to kick it in gear really quick. November soybean futures are working on their 4th higher day in a row and closed well above $12.00 for the past 2-days. Demand remains strong for U.S. soybeans so any further yield reduction should cause higher prices. The Super El Nino talk seems to be heating up as well and that is also adding support to the grains as well.
The wheat market is taking a break in here. Tensions remain high in the Black Sea region, but their supplies are not going away. All it would take is a cease fire or a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine to happen and they could flood the market with their grain stockpiles. As long as corn and soybeans remain supported wheat should hold up as well but wheat on its own should likely see a pullback.
