August 18, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up 41-42c,
💲US Dollar is up 13-14 points.
-The Funds were net buyers of soybeans and sellers of corn last week. Funds are still short about 35,000+ contracts of soybeans and short 176,000+ contracts of corn.
-Weather was a non-event this weekend. Rains across the upper Midwest again keeping that area well hydrated. The 6-10-day forecast is calling for below normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation for much of the growing area in the U.S.
-Crop progress report this afternoon should see corn and soybean ratings steady to down 1% out of the good/excellent category. The eastern part of the U.S. remains dry, affecting thier soybean crop.
-Geopolitical news was quiet over the weekend.
-Pro Farmer Crop tour kicks off this week.
🐂🐻Look for a lower start of the week today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.87 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.08 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.92 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.12 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 which is the low from August 14th. Resistance comes in at $5.17 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures closed out last week nearly unchanged. Given the fact the USDA give us one of the most bearish reports we have ever seen, this feels like a win. As we start this week of trading, not a lot of new news out there. The weather looks to cool down and with the Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicking off, folks will be anxious to see what they find across the U.S. We are hearing more and more tip back and also disease like rust is showing up across parts of Iowa. Odds favor we have seen the largest corn yield for the year, but we still have a very big crop out there and with that we will have challenges. Rallies will be limited here in the near term.
November soybeans ended last week 55c higher. As we look at the forecast for the last 10 days or so of August, the U.S. looks to cool down a bit and the eastern corn belt stays on the dry side. This dryness in Indiana, Ohio and parts of Illinois have some folks think we will see the USDA soybean yield get trimmed. With only 290 million bushels carryout to begin with, just a 1 bushel per acre yield drop will make domestic supplies here in the U.S. very tight. There is good support at $10.25 on November soybeans. Look for soybean futures to stay well supported until we can get a better feel for the size of the U.S. soybean crop and that might last until the combines get rolling.
Wheat futures are starting out the week testing the $5.00 level on September Kansas City wheat. Wheat futures have been building this basing pattern for the past 2 months. Wheat on its own has very little news to talk about. The longer we stay down at these current levels, and the U.S. Dollar stays under 98, we could see export demand pick up.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 18, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
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