August 15, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is mixed,
🛢️crude oil is down 44-45c,
💲US Dollar is down 39-40 points.
-Growing concern over tip back in corn fields across the U.S. could ultimately lower the national yield.
-New crop corn and soybean export sales were better than expected yesterday.
-August soybean futures are now off the board and September is the front month for soybeans.
-Weather is pushing the heat to the western corn belt where the upper Midwest could use the heat to maximize the heat units.
-Watch the crop ratings on Monday. We could start to see the soybean crop decline as the eastern corn belt continues to miss the rains to help finish off the bean crop.
🐂🐻Look for a stead to higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.88 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.09 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.92 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.10 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.18 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
After starting out lower yesterday, nearby corn futures did post a higher close. Folks are finally getting out into the fields and pulling some husks back and many are finding some tip back in their corn. Now we don’t think this is not a major issue and we will still have a significant corn crop, but we could see that national yield decline from the August estimate. There is some chatter about Illinois corn crop being overstated by 5-7 bushels per acre today but to put that in perspective, a 6-7 bushel per acre yield drop in Illinois would drop the national yield by 1 bushel per acre. So, not a game changer but if we see more of the tip back across the corn belt, December corn futures need to add some premium back into the market.
Soybeans were under some pressure yesterday. Part of it was August futures went off the board at noon yesterday and lots of times when we see a futures contract go off the board, we get some weird action. Also, basis levels at the Gulf and out at the PNW were under pressure yesterday. The question still remains; will we get a national soybean yield of 53.6 bushels per acre? The eastern part of the U.S. saw just scattered precipitation this week. Heading into next week, the forecast for the eastern looks to be normal Temps and normal precipitation. Overall, the soybean still has a very interesting situation here. Any yield adjustment lower going forward just makes U.S. soybean carryout even tighter. Keep a close eye on the crop ratings as we finish this soybean crop off.
Suprise, not much new for the wheat market. Weekly export sales were solid again and we continue to see a strong export book for this marketing out of the U.S. The U.S Dollar continues to trade below 98 and feels like we could see a bigger push lower. If we see corn stabilize and push back above $4.00 and the U.S. Dollar stays under pressure, wheat futures should add some premium as well.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 18, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
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