August 14, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up 28-30c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-November soybeans went up and filled the dap at $10.44 1/4 from July 7th.
-November soybeans have seen a 64-65c rally this week but might be stalling out a bit.
-6-10 day weather forecast pushes the heat back to the western corn belt but with normal to above normal chances of precipitation.
-The Upper Midwest could use the warmer temps to get as many GDU’s with fall quickly approaching.
-Weekly export sales will be released here at 7:30 am. Here are the estimates: corn – 1,050,000-3,000,000 metric tons, soybeans – 600,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybean meal 150,000-500,000 metric tons and wheat – 400,000-850,000 metric tons.
-The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicks off next week.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.89 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.10 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.92 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.36 1/2 which is gap from July 7th.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.11 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.19 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are setting back here today after a 2-3c bump up yesterday. The market is still digesting the USDA numbers and the facts are we are still dealing with a large U.S. crop and a balance sheet in which we saw the USDA increase overall corn demand for this upcoming marketing year by 500+ million bushels. Many traders are questioning the increase in demand but time will tell. December corn pushed up close to $4.00 and saw some resistance. I look for that to continue to happen. Weather does not look threatening so for now we have to price in a 188.8 bushel per acre yield on the increase acres and that suggests corn futures should stay under pressure and rallies limited.
Soybean futures had a nice follow through rally yesterday after the USDA cut planted soybean acres and kept the U.S. carryout below 300 million bushels. The U.S. need to grow a 53.6 bushel per acre soybean crop so all eyes will be on weather and how the crop finishes out the year. Last year the August yield to the final yield in January, we saw a 1.5 bushel per acre decline. If that would happen again this year, the U.S. carryout stocks would be sub 200 million bushels. The wild card here is China. What if we get a trade deal with China. The soybean market will be very sensitive to any headline that deals with China and a trade deal.
The wheat market continues to chop around and trend sideways in a small 30c trading range. Exports have picked up so far this year but still not enough to make a big difference. World stocks are still on the tight side but with a wheat crop essentially getting harvested every other month, the market has become comfortable with those tighter supplies.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 18, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
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