August 13, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is down 51-52c,
💲US Dollar is down 43-44 points.
-USDA’s August Crop Production report estimates the corn yield at 188.8 and a total production of 16.742 billion bushel crop. On soybeans, the USDA is estimating a yield of 53.6 bushels per acre and a total crop of 4.292 billion bushels.
-USDA increased the U.S. corn acres by 2.1 million acres and soybean acres were decreased by 2.5 million acres.
-The weather looks to warm up across much of the U.S. this week and into next week.
-The U.S. Dollar is back trading below 98%.
-There are rumors of the Fed dropping interest rates in September and could see a couple more rate cuts beofre the end of the year.
🐂🐻Look for a steady to higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 which is the low from August 26, 2024. Resistance is at $3.91 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $3.92 which is the low from August 12th. Resistance comes in at $4.11 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.92 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.20 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.10 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.43 1/4 which is the high from July 18th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the low from August 6th. Resistance comes in at $5.20 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Typically, the August WASDE report gives us some fireworks, and this year did not disappoint. After seeing one of the most bearish crop reports on corn, I would have to say we didn’t close all that terrible. Yes, corn was still down 13+ cents, but that report could have easily pushed corn down limit. I think it shows that we had a pretty large crop priced in ahead of the report. Odds do favor that the yield and total production we got yesterday in the report could be the highest numbers for yield and production we see all year. Where do we go from here? Rallies will be limited until we fully digest this report. Soybeans will help give corn some support and demand still remain very strong.
Soybeans were able to shrug off a negative corn report and post solid gains yesterday and are following up today with a higher trade. Cutting the planted soybean acres by 2.5 million was a surprise traders were not expecting. USDA’s yield estimate of 53.6 bushels per acre still remains a bit questionable. Yes our crop is still looking very good and rated high, but we have a portion of the eastern U.S. that have been missing rains in August and that could trim their yields. Also, we are hearing more and more disease pressure in the central part of the U.S. too. This all suggests to myself we need to add some risk premium back into the soybean market. When you look at soybeans having a projected 290 million carryout, a 52.5 bushel per acre yield will put that carryout down close to 200 million bushels.
The wheat numbers in the crop report yesterday were pretty neutral. We did see U.S. wheat carryout numbers edge lower as the USDA increased our exports for wheat. The U.S. Dollar is trading below 98 here this morning so a combination of low prices and now a cheaper U.S. Dollar could help stir up some more wheat export demand. Wheat will continue to be a follower of corn and soybeans.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 18, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 22, 2025 – Cattle on Feed Report
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