July 29, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up 37-38c,
💲US Dollar is up 12-13 points.
-U.S. corn conditions rated at 73% good/excellent compared to 74% last week and 68% last year. Soybean conditions come in at 70% good/excellent vs 68% last week and 71% last year.
-The U.S. weather looks to cool down this week and normal precipitation is expected. Some warmer temps coming for the weekend.
-Storms ripped through parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa last night causing some crop damage.
-2 export sales were announced yesterday for corn. Mexico bought 225,000 metric tons of new crop corn and 229,000 metric tons of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Most of which was for new crop.
-Weekly export inspections were very strong this week for corn and soybeans.
-Volume in the grain sector has been very low the past several weeks.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today as the market tries to consolidate.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.02 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.20 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.14 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.27 3/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.27 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures continue to grind lower. The Funds have no reason to panic and buy back their short position but rather add to it. We continue to see some pollination issues across the corn belt but that isn’t enough to get the market excited. The trade deal announced with the EU didn’t spark any buying yesterday either. Seasonally speaking, we would be looking for a low in corn to come mid to late August. The market seems content that we will produce this large corn crop that is estimated between 15.5-16 billion bushels. With crop ratings well ahead of where we were a year ago, I have to think the market is pricing in a national corn yield somewhere between 183-184 or maybe higher. For now, corn futures want to trend lower.
Weekly soybean export inspections this week saw a nice uptick. As South America is focused on shipping out corn, the U.S. has been selling a few soybeans. The U.S. and China met in Stokholm yesterday. Talks were constructive towards a trade deal and the focus was to extend the tariff deadline past August 12th. No word on an extension or trade deal so the soybean market continues to come under some pressure. Overall, the soybean crop is hard to project year in and year out, so the Funds seem content to hold a near neutral positions with a small bias of wanting to build a short position. The weather continues to look good heading into August, but we will need some rains to help produce a bean crop at 52.5 bushels per acres.
Yesterday, the wheat futures showed the most strength trading higher a couple times throughout the day. Now today, they are the weakest complex. Winter wheat is 80% complete and we saw the spring wheat ratings take a 3% point hit this week with the spring wheat crop rated at 49% good/excellent, down from 52% last week and 74% rated good/excellent last year. Spring wheat harvest is just getting going in South Dakota and still a couple weeks away from starting in North Dakota. Wheat continues to trend sideways, building a low on the charts.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 4, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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