July 28, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 6-7c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 58-59c,
💲US Dollar is up 50-51 points.
-President Trump announced a trade deal with E.U. over the weekend. The E.U. will be purchasing $750 billion in goods from the U.S. and said to be investing another $600 billion into the U.S.
-The U.S. and China are set to meet in Stockholm today looking to extend the August 12th tariff deadline.
-Argentina’s President Milei is reducing tariffs on Argentina meats and grains. Soybean export tariffs will be lowered from 33% to 26% and soybean meal, lowered from 31% to 24.5%.
-The heat across the U.S. looks to break this week, bringing much cooler than normal temps. Then this upcoming weekend, we see temps warming back up but nothing threatening.
-The Funds are holding a short position of about 177,000+ corn shorts and were net buyers of soybeans on the week but still holding a short position of 10,000+ contracts short.
🐂🐻Look for a lower start to the week as the weather looks to cool off this week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.03 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.21 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 which is the low from July 15th. Resistance is at $10.16 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.28 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.27 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
September corn futures continue to trade below $4.00 and are looking to test support down at $3.91 1/4. The heat across the U.S. will breakdown this week and bring some much cooler temps before warming back up again this weekend. The next wave of heat across the U.S. doesn’t look as hot as what we just went through so the weather continues to not be an issue. Argentina is reducing their export tariffs on meat and grains, making them to be more competitive on the World market. The U.S. and China will meet today to discuss extending the tariff deadline past August 12. Corn futures look to continue to grind lower and December corn futures feel like they want to test the $4.00 level.
As we head into August this week the weather looks to break the heat. Forecasts are calling for some warmer temps this upcoming weekend, but the temps are not threatening at this point. The U.S. and China will meet today to discuss extending the tariff deadline past August 12th.They continue to “kick the can” down the road and without a trade deal with China, there just is not a lot of bullish news in the grain markets. With Argentina reducing their export tariffs, they will become more competitive in the World market. Look for soybeans to grind lower as November soybean futures look to test the $10.00 eventually.
The wheat futures are back being a follower. With corn and soybeans lower here this morning, wheat futures will have a tough time standing on their own. Spring wheat harvest is still a couple weeks away in the Dakotas. Demand for U.S. wheat seems to be picking up a bit with the cheaper prices and the lower U.S. Dollar. Look for wheat futures to continue to trade sideways putting in a low here in the near term.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 25, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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