July 25, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 16-17c,
💲US Dollar is up 30-31 points.
-Corn saw a couple flash sales yesterday of 135,000 metric tons to South Korea and 284,000 metric tons to unknown destinations. These were the first flash sales we have seen in a while.
-Leaders from Brazil and Mexico held a phone call discussing trade ideas as they brace for export duties to the U.S. on their goods shipped into the U.S.
-Weekly export sales saw a nice rebound and solid week for corn sales. Soybean sales continue to disappoint, and wheat sales were a marketing year high.
-Wheat Quality finished their spring wheat tour pegging the spring wheat crop at 49 bushels per acre vs 54.5 last year.
🐂🐻Look for mixed to lower prices today as we close out the week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.04 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.21 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 which is the low from July 15th. Resistance is at $10.18 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.28 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.28 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market continues to struggle pushing higher. Demand is strong but with the U.S. crop rated 74% good/excellent and near ideal weather, the optimism over this year’s crop is big. Compared to last year, we are heading into August with better soil moisture and the extended weather maps are calling for normal temps and precipitation. September corn futures are hanging around the $4.00 level and one would think December corn would eventually head down and test the $4.00 or below before harvest. Right now, the grain markets cannot find much bullish news so we will continue to grind lower into harvest.
November soybeans tested the 200-day moving average again yesterday and was rejected again. As they push lower here today, November soybeans are back trading under $10.20, and we have been finding support around the $10.15 area. The weather for August looks to be seasonal with average temps and normal precipitation. The issue is even a slight reduction in soybean yields will cause even tighter domestic stocks in the U.S. The Funds are staying close to neutral position but feels like they want to push this market even lower.
The Wheat Quality Council held their spring wheat tour in North Dakota this week. After 3 days they estimate the spring wheat crop at 49 bushels per acre compared to 54.5 bushels per acre last year. Demand for U.S. wheat seems to be picking up. Combination of low prices and a U.S. Dollar under 98 is helping as well. Wheat futures are consolidating and putting in a low but until corn or soybean can muster up a meaningful rally, wheat will have to continue to grind sideways.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 25, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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