July 22, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 66-67c,
💲US Dollar is down 8-9 points.
-Crop ratings were unchanged for corn and lowered 2% on soybeans. Corn is still rated 74% good/excellent compared to 67% last year and soybeans are now rated 68% good/excellent which is the same as they were 1 years ago.
-Weekly export inspections saw a strong week of inspections for wheat and soybeans but below expectations on corn.
-The weather looks to warm up this week, then a brief cool down this weekend before heating back up. The focus will be is where the second wave of heat will expand to. Right now, it looks like the heat will cover eastern South Dakota, the western 1/3rd of Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and the southern 1/3 of Illinois. North and east of that line should stay a bit cooler with chances of rain.
-December corn broke down below the 20-day moving average yesterday and November soybeans did not hold the 100-day and 200-day moving averages for support.
🐂🐻Look choppy but lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.17 1/4 which is the top side of the gap left from early July.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.32 3/4 which is top side of the gap left from early July.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 which is the low from July 15th. Resistance is at $10.36 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.29 1/4 which is 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.29 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures went down, tested the 20-day moving average yesterday and could not hold. Weekly export inspections were decent but came in below market expectations. Demand for U.S. corn remains very strong and with a cheaper U.S. Dollar, we should see demand pick back up. Crop ratings came in unchanged from last week at 74% rated good/excellent compared to 68% this week one year ago. The weather is going to heat up the next 2 weeks but with really good rains coming into the week, the market is content that any risk to the crop damage due to the heat will be minimal. December corn looks to be headed down to test the $4.00 level.
November soybeans ended last week above all the major moving averages but quickly erased most of those gains yesterday. As November soybeans break down below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages we look to find some initial support around $10.15. If we do not find support around $10.15, then November soybeans will test the $10.00 area again. We still have the entire month of August weather to get through but right now, the heat doesn’t look to last into early August.
The U.S and Bangladesh agreed on a trade deal in which Bangladesh will buy 700,000 metric tons of wheat from the U.S. each year for the next 5 years. This is a significant increase over what they have bought from the U.S. in the past. This news, along with the U.S. Dollar breaking down below 98 again is giving wheat futures a little support. As corn and soybeans are heading back down to support, wheat seems to be trying to build a basing pattern forming a bottom in here.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 25, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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