July 21, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 8-9c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 27-28c,
💲US Dollar is down 23-24 points.
-The heat is coming for the U.S. this week, however there were some real good rain showers that give most people a good drink before the heat sets up. The question on everyone’s mind is how long the heat will last.
-Crop ratings this week should see corn and soybeans scores steady to maybe 1% higher.
-Last week Funds were net buyers of 29,000+ contracts of corn and net sellers of 26,000+ contracts of soybeans.
-Soybeans are back testing support at the 100-day and 200-day moving averages while December corn is testing the 20-day moving average.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as we start the week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.06 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.17 1/2 which is the top side of the gap left from early July.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.23 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.32 3/4 which is top side of the gap left from early July.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.16 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $10.40 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.24 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.44 1/4 which is the top side of the gap left in from early July.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.32 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn pushed back above the 20-day moving average to close out last week and is back testing that level again this morning. We saw the Funds be net buyers last week as the weather does look to warm up and dry out this week for portions of the corn belt. We will have to see just where the heat sets up because there will be portions of the corn belt that continue to get some beneficial rains. Last year the corn crop tailed off and that is the concern again here this year. We continue to see a few pollination issues across the corn belt which is adding some additional support. Good rains swept across a good portion of the corn belt this weekend, ahead of the heat adding a little pressure to start out the week.
It is all about August weather for the soybeans. We will see some heat across the U.S. this week and maybe next week but so far, the extended weather models do not suggest much heat for the month of August. Funds were net sellers of soybeans last week, putting them about 32,000+ contracts short of soybeans. President Trump is continuing to work trade deals with a lot of countries. India is one country the U.S. is working on to buy more corn and soybeans from the U.S. November soybeans are back testing support of the major moving averages to start out the week. A close below $10.24 on November futures could cause November futures to go back and test the $10.00 area.
Kansas City wheat seems to have found a new trading range between $5.15 and $5.32. Wheat is more of a follower here lately of corn. Last week wheat futures were poised to breakout to the downside but the hot weather that gave corn a boost, spilled over into the wheat complex. Wheat now seems to be building a basing pattern, putting in a low. We would need to see a close of $5.50 or better on the September Kansas City futures to breakout to the upside.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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