July 18, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 6-7c,
🌱soybeans are up 14-15c,
🍞wheat is up 10-12c,
🛢️crude oil is up 72-73c,
💲US Dollar is down 36-37 points.
-Weather models are pushing in some heat into the Midwest starting next week.
-Weekly export sales yesterday was disappointing. Old crop corn sales were a marketing year low.
-Corn and soybeans bounced off resistance yesterday but this morning is breaking out to the upside.
-More and more pollination issues across much of the corn belt are showing up. Last year the crop tailed off at the end so could the same happen this year?
-There is a gap on December corn at $4.32 3/4 and November soybeans at $10.44 1/4 that could be a target for the bulls.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade as we head into the weekend with a hotter forecast coming next week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.94 1/2 which is the low from July 11th. Resistance is at $4.07 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.11 3/4 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $4.24 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.37 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.30 which is the 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.34 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are rallying this morning on a couple issues. First, weather models are putting some heat into the Midwest next week. Now there is still a question on where the heat will set up and how long it will last. Last year the corn crop seemed to tail off at the end and that is the fear again this year. Secondly, there is a growing concern over some pollination issues. The issues seem to be spread out in the eastern corn belt while the western corn belt is just starting to pollinate. These issues are enough to make the Funds a bit nervous and cover some of their short positions. There is a gap on the December corn contract at $4.32 3/4 and that could be a target area for the bulls in the market.
For the soybeans, it is all about the weather. August looks to start out a bit warmer than we have been. The big question is how long the hot/dry weather lasts? Some model runs suggest it lasts a few days and others suggest it will last a few days and then show back up. Funds are holding a small-short position. The U.S. ending stocks are tight so any potential yield loss in the U.S. will tighten the soybean carryout. November soybeans have a gap on the chart up at $10.44 1/4 that could be a target today for the soybean bulls. November soybeans are also trading above the major moving averages and if we can close above them today, maybe they can head up and test the $10.58 1/2 high from earlier this month.
Just as wheat was starting to breakdown and make another leg lower, they come bouncing back higher today. For the wheat complex, there just is not a lot of fresh new news to trade on. Spring wheat harvest is a couple weeks away yet. There is some concern over the wheat crop in Russia and Ukraine. So overall, wheat is mainly a follower here and with corn and soybeans pushing higher, it doesn’t take too much to push the wheat higher as well.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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