July 17, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.73,
-China has bought 1.06 Million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans last week. 26/27 soybean export sales were 1.7 MMT coming in at top of estimates. 25/26 soybean sales were a little lackluster, coming in at bottom end of expectations.
-Corn/wheat exports came in at the low side of expectations for the week- corn exports were were a marketing year low
-US announces new 25% tariffs on Brazil for ‘unfair’ trade practices – beef, coffee and energy products are exempt but soybean products and ethanol are not.
-December corn tested the 200 day at $4.73 but ultimately closed lower on the day.
-NOPA crush out yesterday come in at 214.3 million bushels vs trade estimates of 204 million bushels.
-Weather models generally showing adequate moisture for the end of the month with east being wetter than western corn belt.
-Reports are showing China bought more soybeans – look for a flash sale this morning.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.38 3/4 which is 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.52 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.59 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.73 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.73 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.89 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.70 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.58 3/4 which is the high from May 19th.
Where do we go from Here:
While we started positive on the backs of last Fridays USDA report for corn/beans – we’ve so far failed to close above meaningful support that could lead us back to new highs on either commodity. The market has shown it’s comfortable at these levels until we get more bullish news. Right now the potential bullish factors are Ukraine/Russia supply disruption, Iran/crude, Chinese buying & possibly weather. This time of year I do have to bring up seasonals and the later we get into July the more we have any type of seasonal pattern working against us.
It’s been a good week of China buying US soybeans with optimism it can continue. Last night president Trump spoke on potential Chinese interference in the 2020 election. Anything that can cause a hiccup in China ag buying makes me nervous.
Wheat tried to make new highs for the year yesterday but ultimately closed lower on the day- still up significantly on the week after the huge move Wednesday.
Crude oil has rallied this week on Iran conflict escalation but still hanging below 50/100 day moving averages – If we see continued closing of the strait of Hormuz look for crude to test previous levels in the $85+ range. Historically you can look for corn and crude to have a strong correlation but that certainly wasn’t the case on the last runup.
As for my backyard (central IL) we’ve had a good start to this crop and while we have had some hot temps we do have rain in the forecast for this weekend. Doesn’t feel like we have a record corn crop but I feel like we have potential for very good yields.
COT report out today will likely show funds went from short to close to even position this week on corn depending on how today shakes out, added to there soybean length, and significantly decreased their wheat short position. Soybean oil continues to show a significantly long fund position.
Everyone have a great weekend!