July 16, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are up 6-8c,
🍞wheat is unch,
🛢️crude oil is down 15-20c,
💲US Dollar is down 5-6 points.
-Don’t look now but the corn market could be trying to hold a solid bounce off the lows, as we are currently 4-5 higher, this would be day 5 out of the last 6 that we are higher.
-December corn futures is trading up at its 20-day moving average this morning.
-37% of US WW harvest left, as recent rains expected to show continued improvements in Spring wheat condition ratings and still be a hurdle for HRW harvest pace
-NOPA June 2025 US Soybean Crush: 185.709 million bushels; expected 185.2 mbu.; prior month 192.829 mbu
NOPA June 2025 US Soyoil Stocks: 1.366 billion lbs; expected 1.37 bil lbs; prior month 1.373 bil lbs
-The U.S. and Indonesia have reportedly come to a deal that will allow the U.S. full access to Indonesian markets. Indonesia will face 19% duties and has agreed to purchase $4.5 bil worth of U.S. agricultural goods, well above it average of $2.995 bil since 2020. The deal also includes $15 bil in U.S. energy imports and a major aircraft order from Boeing.
-Weather forecasts look good for the next 5-7 days. However, there are some models that are finding some flip-flopping on the exeteded dry models to warm and wet. TBD
🐂🐻The market feels eager to bounce. Soybeans have already made back all of yesterday’s losses and corn is trading above $4.25
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn remains at $3.94 1/2 which is the low from July 11th. Resistance is at $4.09 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Currently we have traded two days in a row above the 10-day moving average. Keep your eyes on the gap that was left July 7th. $4.1725
December corn – Support comes in at $4.11 3/4 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $4.26 1/4 which is 20-day moving average, which we are trading very close to. GAP from July 7th is at $4.3275
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.38 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. You may see some initial resistance at the 10-day around $10.18
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.28 which is the 100-day moving average. We stayed on the good side of the psychological support of $10.00 yesterday which was also the bottom of the channel that has been formed. The upside target would come in around $10.50.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.42 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
While weather continues to hit the needed areas across the grainbelt the corn crop continues to drive discussions of increased yield potential. Yesterday news wires have been reporting potential pollination problems due to high tassel wrap. This is something that will need to be watched and we probably won’t get any good solidification of major concerns until we start seeing crop tours moving throughout the Midwest.
November soybeans are still in a down trend but looking to form a bottom off the downward trend line. After dipping it’s toe below the $10.00 level on Monday the farmer movement has been quiet. NOPA’s June crush came in at 185.7 mb, just above the average trade estimate of 185.2 mb; this was a new record for the month. Down from May’s total of 192.8 mb and more than June of last year’s total of 175.6 mb. Marketing year to date, the total crush stands at 1.919 bb compared to the 1.837 bb pace from a year ago. With weather being benign, it feels like a rally may be hard to find. Large South American production has thrown a wet blanket on the Global balance sheet.
Wheat has simply had a hard time finding anything to keep prices supported. Better rains this year have slowed harvest in many areas and frustrated producers but rain in the plains has created an increase in output. The market keeps looking for and needing a boost from Trade negotiations to bounce out of this 2-year BLAH
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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