July 15, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-5c,
🍞wheat is up 5-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up 80-81c,
💲US Dollar is up 5-6 points.
-Corn crop ratings stayed unchanged for the week at 74% rated good/excellent and soybeans increased by 4% and is now rated 70% good/excellent.
-December corn futures scored fresh contract lows before closing higher yesterday.
-Weekly export inspections come in below the estimates on corn but are still running about 30% ahead of last year.
-Weekly soybean export inspections were about 1/2 of what we had last week.
-Weather forecasts look good for the next 7 days but there are some models trying to put in a heat dome over the corn belt the last week of July.
🐂🐻Look for another choppy trade today. Can prices shrug off their early morning losses?
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.94 1/2 which is the low from July 11th. Resistance is at $4.09 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.11 3/4 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $4.26 1/4 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.38 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.28 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.40 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The U.S. corn crop continues to look very good. USDA rated the corn crop conditions at 74% good/excellent yesterday and the weather forecast for the next 7 days should not hurt those ratings any. December corn futures had big reversal yesterday, trading to a new low but then closing at last Friday’s high. This is the type of trade action were looking for to possibly put in a low into the market. Rallies will be limited here in the near term as the weather just looks near idea.
November soybeans are still in a down trend. USDA increased the crop ratings on soybeans yesterday in the good/excellent category by 4% and currently rates the crop 70% good/excellent. The main focus is the weather and the next 7 days it looks ideal for crop development. The week 2 forecast does look a to be a little warmer and drier and there has been a model run or 2 that want to put in a heat dome over the central part of the U.S. Until the heat dome sets up, look for prices to continue their trend, which is down.
Winter wheat harvest is on the downhill slide and spring wheat harvest is a few days away yet. Wheat prices pulled back yesterday as concerns over imposing tariffs on Mexico and Europe could curb the demand for U.S. wheat in the near term. September Kansas City wheat futures seem content to consolidate between $5.16 and $5.40.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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