July 14, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-5c,
🍞wheat is up 5-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up 80-81c,
💲US Dollar is up 5-6 points.
-President Trump announced he will place a 30% tariff on Mexico and Europe.
-USDA did not give us any surprises in the July Crop Production report. 2024/25 corn ending stocks continue to get tighter and the 2025/26 marketing year ending stocks are tight to start out.
-The Funds are holding a net short position of 206,000+ contracts of corn and on soybeans they are now short and have a net short position of 6200+ contracts of soybeans.
-The weather this week looks dry for the first couple days but then a system will sweep across the upper plains into the central corn belt bring us a little cooler temp and 1-3″ of rain. The 8-14 days forecast does a look a little drier but nothing extreme at this point.
-Crop ratings this afternoon should see corn ratings steady to higher and soybeans steady to 1% higher in the good/excellent category.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today as the traders are working on putting in a low in corn and soybeans.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.94 1/2 which is the low from July 11th. Resistance is at $4.11 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.11 3/4 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $4.27 1/4 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.39 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.28 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.42 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA did not give us any surprises last Friday in their July Crop Production report. Exports were raised up by 100 million bushels like most traders were expecting and feed demand was lowered by 75 million bushels, like most traders were expecting. The weather looks to bring some decent rains across a good portion of the corn belt this week and then a little drier the last week of July. Looking ahead, odds suggest we will see the USDA increase their yield on corn in the August Crop Production report. However, I feel the market has a higher yield already priced in. After gapping lower last night, corn futures worked back, filled the gap and are now higher. The market could be working on a basing pattern of putting in a low in the short term.
November soybeans did trade down below the $10.00 on the overnight session but have worked their way back higher. Carryout stocks on soybeans for this marketing year and next marketing year were both increased slightly but still remain on the tight side. The market is waiting to see the forecast for the month of August. Right now, the weather does look a little dry for that las week of July and heading into August, but the heat doesn’t look bad at all. If we would trend drier and hotter through August, then November soybeans would have to add some weather premium into the market. Until that happens, look for November soybeans to consolidate around the $10.00 area.
September Kansas City wheat futures went back down and tested support from back on May 13th and have held so far. Winter wheat harvest is on the downhill slide so the hedge pressure should not be a factor anymore. The USDA only made a few minor changes to the wheat balance sheet last Friday so look for wheat to settle back in and be a follower of the corn market.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 14, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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