July 13, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are up 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.58-$1.59,
💲US Dollar is down 5 points
-Hot and dry all this week for much of the corn belt as we roll into pollination.
-The 7-10-day and the 11-15-day forecasts maps bring in cooler temps but still dry for July.
-USDA surprised the market by increasing feed and residual for the 2025-26 crop year. This helps keep ending stocks tighter than expected.
-USDA left yields unchanged for corn and soybeans and still projecting 183 bushels per acre on corn and 53 bushels per acre on soybeans.
-Crop progress report this week could show ratings improve a bit ahead of the heat that started this weekend.
-Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated providing support toe crude oil prices.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade to start out the week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.26 1/4 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.48 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.46 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.71 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.69 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.66 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.91 1/2 which is the low from May 15th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures gapped higher last night and remain 4-5c higher. It is all about the weather and how long this heat will last. All of this week, most of the corn belt will see highs in the 90’s as the corn crop is pollinating. Add on top of this a very dry forecast for the next 7-10 days we have the corn market adding back in some risk premium into the marketplace. The market is a bit more sensitive now after the USDA estimated old crop and new crop ending stocks to be tighter than traders were expecting. There still remains questions on how the USDA will justify last years feed/residual number and most are expecting the USDA to lower last’s year’s corn crop by 2-3 bushels per acre. That puts into question then if the U.S. can achieve a 183 bushel per acre national yield this year. So, with a lot of unknowns out there, I look for the corn market to remain volatile here the next 2-3 weeks and sensitive to the weather maps. As the weather forecasts change, so will our markets.
Soybeans find themselves in an interesting situation. Last Friday the USDA lowered the old crop ending and kept the new crop ending stocks unchanged. This is all while we saw planted acres for soybeans increase by 665,000 in the Planted Acres report on June 30th. Why this gets interesting is the USDA is projecting a 53 bushel per acre yield, matching last year’s yield and a record high yield for U.S. soybeans. Now, I am not saying we cannot produce that national yield again, but we need to have really good weather in August. If you take off just 1 bushel per acre and it comes in at 52 bushels per acre, U.S. ending stocks are down to 220-230 million bushels. So, I look for soybeans to continue to hang around the $12.00 level until we get closer to August and the market can feel confident, we are going to grow a 53 bushel per acre crop.
Wheat prices are starting off the week a touch lower. This big story is the Funds are just not active buying wheat today or yet. Last week we saw the Funds bail out of their short positions in wheat as the wheat crop in Europe continues to get smaller and Ukraine carried out some attacks on Russia that is going to shut down one of their major ports, they ship wheat out of. The U.S. crop and ending stocks continue to get smaller so the Funds are heading to the sidelines and getting out of their short positions.
