July 11, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up 24-25c,
💲US Dollar is up 11-12 points.
-Weekly export sales yesterday was very strong on corn and at the upper end of expectations for soybeans. Corn exports are running well ahead of USDA pace and we could see the USDA increase export demand by 100 million bushels in the July USDA Crop Production report.
-The USDA will release their July Monthly Crop Production report here today.
-Yield and production estimates for today’s report basically unchanged.
-Trade estimates for 2024/25 marketing year carryout are: corn 1.347 billion bushels and soybeans 359 million bushels. For the 2025/26 carryout: corn 1.733 billion bushels, soybeans 305 million bushels and wheat 895 million bushels.
-Another flash sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn were announced yesterday.
-CONAB increased their corn production number on Brazil’s corn crop by over 3 MMT.
-35% tariff on Candian goods into the U.S. was announced yesterday.
🐂🐻All eyes will be in the USDA Crop Production report here this morning.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.96 3/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance is at $4.12 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.13 1/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance comes in at $4.29 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.40 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.29 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.43 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It is report day. The trade is not looking for any significant changes in the yield or production in the July report but not saying it cannot happen. The corn crop is rated pretty high so there is always that chance. The main changes will be is will the USDA increase their export sales number and by how much? Right now, most traders believe we could see a 100 million bushel increase in export demand on corn. However, feed demand seems to be still overstated and could offset the increase in exports. Net/net the trade is looking for a mall reduction in carryout stocks. Once the report is released, the trade will go back to trading the weather and that still looks good for crop development across much of the U.S. Barring any major surprises from USDA, look for corn to continue to grind sideways to lower.
Most traders feel we have a pretty good handle on the carryout number for the soybeans. Export sales yesterday was good, giving us the belief we could achieve the USDA annual export sales objective. For the July report, we don’t look for many changes, if any. The weather is still hinting towards a hotter and drier trend in August, but we have seen that forecast before too so until it materializes, the trade doesn’t seem to be concerned. Look for soybeans to continue to grind sideways.
Wheat futures saw a nice bounce yesterday. Combination with more strikes by Russia on Ukraine recently and futures holding support give us a nice bounce higher yesterday. The trade is not looking for too many surprises in the July Crop Production report today. Harvest continues to push northward without too many issues.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
July 14, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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