July 10, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.04-$0.05,
💲US Dollar is down 3 points
-The extended weather maps continue to cool down and push the heat ridge back over the Rockies.
-USDA will release their Crop Production report this morning at 11:00 am CST.
-Big numbers to watch in the USDA report will be carryout numbers for 2026/27. Corn is estimated at 1.873 billion bushels, soybeans estimated at 330 million bushels and wheat is estimated at 714 million bushels.
-Brazil and Argentina are both getting more and more competitive for corn in the World market.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.24 1/4 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.48 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.44 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.71 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.68 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.39 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.66 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market is highly sensitive to the weather right now. For the past 2 days, the extended weather maps have turned a bit cooler across the Midwest. Now, with that forecast we are seeing a little drier trend as well but most of the U.S. is sitting in pretty good shape for moisture. Pollination across the U.S. is picking up steam and for the next 7 days, the major heat will stay in the Upper Midwest where they won’t pollinate until the heat pushes back over the Rockies and back to the Southwest part of the U.S. The trade today will see what the USDA has for crop production numbers. I highly doubt we will see any yield changes and the USDA seems content on addressing the feed/residual number in the September 30th report. So, I don’t look for any surprises today from the report and look for the carryout for the 2026/27 marketing year to be around the 1.9-billion-bushel level with a trendline yield of 183 bushels per acre.
The Funds seem to be back in the sell mode in the soy complex. The USDA has had a good handle on the demand numbers for soybeans, so I doubt we see any surprises. With China back in the mix of things buying up to 25 MMT of new crop soybeans from the U.S. this upcoming marketing year, our projected ending stocks will continue to hang around the 330-million-bushel level. On paper that is a comfortable supply. However, we still need to get through the month of August regarding weather. Can we produce a 53 bushel per acre yield again? It is quite possible but if we have any issues with August weather, just a 1 bushel per acre decline puts the U.S. ending stock in the 250-million-bushel area and that makes things snug here in the U.S. So, I still feel soybeans will remain well supported until we get into the month of August.
Winter wheat harvest is on the downhill slide and spring wheat harvest is still a few weeks out. September Kansas City wheat has had a nice bounce off their lows and seem content to consolidate between $6.30 and $6.70. Traders are looking for the USDA to lower their ending stocks estimate down to 714 million bushels of wheat today as lower acres and high abandonment is making for a smaller U.S. wheat crop. Look for wheat to continue to follow corn and soybeans.
