July 10, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 6-8c,
🛢️crude oil is down 37-38c,
💲US Dollar is down 13-14 points.
-President Trump announced he will place a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. Brazil and along with at least 20 other countries will be getting tariffs of 20-50% effective August 1 on all imported goods from those countries.
-Secretary of Ag Brooke Rollins took decisive action yesterday and shut down the southern border to livestock trade due to further North Word spread of the New World Screwworm.
-Export sales will be released out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 525,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybeans 350,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 200,000-600,000 metric tons and soybean meal 125,000-950,000 metric tons.
-Rains swept across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska last night and now across Minnesota and Iowa this morning. Majority of the corn belt looks to get good moisture this week with seasonal temps. Ideal for the corn crop that is pollinating.
-Farmer selling has come to a halt and basis levels across a lot of areas in the U.S. are starting to firm up a bit. However, corn harvest in the deep south is only a month away.
-USDA July Crop Production report will be out tomorrow morning at 11:00 am CDT,
🐂🐻Look for mixed trade today as traders square up positions ahead of the July Crop Production report.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.96 3/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance is at $4.14 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.13 1/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance comes in at $4.28 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.64 1/4 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.58 1/2 which is the high from July 3rd.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.44 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices have been mixed on the overnight session. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the July Crop Production report. The market is waiting for retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. as President Trump has sent out letters notifying several countries of their new tariff rate effective August 1, 2025. The weather continues to look good during pollination in the U.S., so the market is trying to stabilize. September corn is below the $4.00 level and seems to be consolidating. Funds have been active sellers this week and are probably close to 225,000 contracts short or more.
November soybeans broke through support around $10.15 and are now testing support at $10.00 here this morning. Funds continue to hold a mostly neutral position as we get closer to the August weather. For about the last year or so, November 20205 soybean futures have traded between $10.00 and $11.00. As we approach the $10.00, look for some buying to surface.
Wheat prices are strong er here this morning. More fighting going on in the Black Sea region has the Funds coming in to cover some of their massive, short positions. Rains across Nebraska and South Dakota will delay winter wheat harvest a bit a cause some concern over the quality. September Kansas City wheat futures are finding support down at the $5.15 area and now look to head back up and test resistance around $5.44.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
July 14, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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