July 9, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.08-$0.09,
💲US Dollar is down 3 points
-The U.S./Iran conflict escalated yesterday as the U.S. carried out more strikes against Iran for not living up to the ceasefire.
-Weather maps in the U.S. turned much cooler yesterday at noon. We will still see some heat in the 1-5-day forecasts but cooler after that.
-USDA will release their July Crop Production report out tomorrow at 11:00 am CT.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30 am CT. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 1,200,000-2,000,000 metric tons, soybeans 200,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 250,000-600,000 metric tons and soybean meal 250,000-600,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.24 1/4 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.49 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.44 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.70 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.68 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.38 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.68 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It is July 9th and we are smack in the middle of a good old weather market. Corn market was relatively quiet yesterday morning, but when the midday weather maps come out and trended much cooler, corn and soybeans started to sell off. The Funds feel like they have built a small net long position over the past week so they are probably heading back to the sidelines and will keep a mostly neutral position until we get a better read on the U.S. crop. The market is trying to figure out if the USDA overstated last year’s crop and if they did then what is a good yield estimate for this year’s corn crop? The Crop Production report tomorrow should not see too many surprises. We could see corn exports get increased while the ethanol crush number gets lowered. I feel the corn market rallying back up to 50% of its recent selloff brought in some farmer selling so I look for the September corn to settle in a $4.20 to $4.40 trading range.
Soybean prices simply do not like to trade above $12.00 for very long. I initially thought we would see some follow through buying in soybeans once we pushed above $12.00 but that did not happen. The biggest disappointment in the soybean market yesterday was crude oil pushed soybean oil up over $2 and yet the soybean futures sold off on the day. Yes, the July weather can have an impact on the soybean crop, but August weather carries much more weight. After China stepping in and buying some new crop soybeans the previous 2 days, we saw them take a step back. Odds are good they will live up to buying the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans but they typically will make the big purchases later this summer or early fall. I look for August soybean to settle in a $11.70 to $12.00 trading range.
European wheat prices are pushing higher and that is lending some support to U.S. wheat prices. Demand lately has been lackluster as the U.S. wheat is too expensive. World stocks are getting a little tighter, but we still have plenty of wheat in the World. Unless we have a bullish story in the corn or soybean markets, I look for wheat to pullback a bit. September Kansas City wheat could pull back to support down around $6.30.
