July 9, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up 23-24c,
💲US Dollar is up 2-3 points.
-Flash sale of corn of 112,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico was announced yesterday. The drought continues to hit Mexico, and they continue to buy a lot of U.S. corn.
-The Philippines bought 144,000 metric tons of soybean meal yesterday.
-Fresh corn tract lows for many corn contracts. Overnight prices seem to be stabilizing.
-Weather for the next 2 weeks continues to bring rain for much of the corn belt and mild temps.
-USDA will release their July Crop Production report this Friday at 11:00 AM CDT.
🐂🐻Look for mixed trade today as prices try to stabilize.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.96 3/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance is at $4.15 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.13 1/4 which is the low from July 8th. Resistance comes in at $4.31 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.16 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $10.64 1/4 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/4 which is the low from June 27th. Resistance is at $10.58 1/2 which is the high from July 3rd.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.44 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
As the majority of the corn heads into pollination the next 2 weeks, the weather forecast could not be much better. Yes, there are a few issues with the crop across a few areas, but the good areas seem to make up for those that are struggling. Mexico continues to buy corn from the U.S. as drought continues to hit some of their top corn producing areas now for the 3rd year in a row. If the drought conditions persist, look for Mexico to be a big buyer of U.S. corn this marketing year. September corn futures broke down below the $4.00 level yesterday and are still trading below $4.00 this morning. The trend is down and until we get some bullish news in the marketplace, the trend will likely continue.
November soybeans seem to find support around $10.15 level. Soybean meal continues its slide lower, weighing on soybeans. The U.S. has the cheapest soybeans in the World right now so we might see a little uptick in business in both soybeans and soybean meal. Traders are patiently waiting for the August weather forecast to get a feel for the size of the U.S. soybean crop. Domestic supplies for soybeans are tight so any hiccup in production could push soybeans higher.
Kansas City wheat futures are having a tough time rallying. Harvest is past the 50% mark for winter wheat and there are plenty of bushels to sell. Seasonally speaking, wheat typically rallies about now but with corn and soybeans being under pressure, it will be hard for wheat to stand alone and rally. Look for rallies to be limited but the downside should be limited too.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
July 14, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
