July 8, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-4c,
🍞wheat is down 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is down 37-38c,
💲US Dollar is down 6-7 points.
-Corn conditions come in at the highest in 7 years, rated 74% good/excellent while soybeans remained unchanged at 66% good/excellent.
-Interesting to see Iowa’s corn crop is rated 86% good/excellent while the Illinois corn crop lost 3% for the second week in a row.
-COT report show the Funds sold about 24,000 contracts of corn and are short a little more than 206,000 contracts of corn. On soybeans Funds were sellers of about 23,000 contracts and are basically holding a neutral position.
-President Trump announced 25% tariff on all goods from Japan and South Korea yesterday that will start August 1st. July 9th is the deadline for the tariff “halt” and foreign countries will need to get their trade deals to President Trump by the end of today.
-The weather forecast out to the 6–10-day forecast looks great for crop development. There is some dryness showing up in Illinois and over into Indiana, but the temperatures look to remain seasonal.
🐂🐻Look for slightly lower trade today as traders positions themselves for the July USDA Crop Production report.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.00 1/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $4.16 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.16 1/2 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $4.32 1/2 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.16 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $10.64 1/4 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/4 which is the low from June 27th. Resistance is at $10.58 1/2 which is the high from July 3rd.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.45 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Monday was a rough day for corn, soybeans and wheat. The market is patiently awaiting trade deals announced from President Trump and the potential impact on the demand for U.S. grains. Crop ratings for corn were a 7-year high coming in at 74% rated good/excellent. Many in the market feel the trade is already pricing in a higher U.S. corn yield. Odds do suggest that the USDA will not adjust the yields until the August Crop Production report. For today, corn market seems to be stabilizing. Look for December corn futures to grind sideways between $4.10 and $4.30 futures.
Soybean crop conditions were left unchanged from last week. This is not a surprise and many folks we talk to all comment on their soybeans just don’t quite look as good as their corn crop. We are hearing about a lot of short beans and getting more and more drown out spots. Plus, we feel there are still acres that just did not get planted too. Demand for U.S. soybeans seems to be picking up a little. Soybeans out of the U.S. are the cheapest beans in the World right now so it would not surprise us if we started to see a little bit of new business.
Kansas City wheat futures I thought performed pretty well yesterday. Yes, they were lower, but they did close 6c or so off of their lows unlike corn and soybeans. September Kansas City Wheat futures are also holding support for now. Harvest in Kansas is wrapping up as winter wheat harvest crossed the 50% mark completed. Typically, when the winter wheat gets over 50% completed, we do see a little rally.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
July 14, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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